Bitcoin: A comeback to $150,000 or an exponential crash? - Analysis by Peter Brandt

Since the April 2024 halving, the price of bitcoin has stagnated, but experts remain optimistic about a potential increase. Peter Brandt, a valiant crypto analyst, predicts a significant rise, although it will take time to materialize.

Peter Brandt’s Predictions: A Bitcoin at $150,000 by 2025?

Peter Brandt, crypto expert and bitcoin aficionado, anticipates that bitcoin could reach a range of $130,000 to $150,000 by September 2025. This projection is based on historical models where bitcoin halvings have often marked the start of significant bullish cycles.

In April 2024, the 4^th Bitcoin halving reduced BTC miners’ rewards by 50%, an event that has traditionally preceded substantial increases in the bitcoin price.

Brandt highlights in his blog post that past halvings have created an “almost perfect symmetry” in bullish cycles. According to him, the current bullish market began in December 2022, about 16 months before the recent halving, corresponding to historical trends observed in previous cycles.

Despite a rise of over 311% since December 2022, bitcoin has not yet surpassed its all-time high of $73,750 reached in March 2024. Brandt tempers his optimism by noting a 25% probability that bitcoin has already reached the peak of this bull cycle, emphasizing the decreased returns over the cycles.

Exponential Decline Risk: A Crucial Warning

Peter Brandt also warns against an “exponential decline” scenario if bitcoin fails to surpass its previous record and drops below $55,000. This situation could lead to a sharp and lasting drop in the bitcoin price, representing a major risk for investors.

Currently, bitcoin is trading around $69,059, with a 1.5% increase in the last 24 hours and a record trading volume of $22.58 billion, representing a 100% increase.

Crossing the $70,000 mark is crucial for paving the way to new highs, according to Brandt’s predictions, this proven anti-Ethereum advocate.

However, history shows that cryptocurrency markets can be extremely volatile and unpredictable. Indeed, despite models and trends, technical analysis is not infallible, and projections should be approached with caution. Brandt himself admits the limitations of technical analysis, emphasizing that no method is guaranteed to predict the future with certainty.

The future trajectory of bitcoin remains uncertain. While substantial increases are anticipated, investors should also prepare for potential declines.