SEC Surrenders, Ripple Celebrates, But Markets Stay Reserved

The end of the interminable procedure between the SEC and Ripple surprised no one, as investors were already anticipating this withdrawal due to a pro-crypto shift prompted by the Trump administration. While the announcement marked the closure of one of the most emblematic legal cases in the sector, the markets had already factored in this outcome well before its officialization.

The Definitive Closure of the SEC vs Ripple Case

On March 19, Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, officially announced the decision of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to withdraw its appeal. “The SEC just filed for surrender,” he stated. He characterized this outcome as a “resounding victory.”

This announcement puts an end to one of the longest and most followed legal battles in the sector. The procedure was initiated in December 2020, when the SEC accused Ripple of raising $1.3 billion through the unregistered sale of securities in the form of its XRP token.

Several intermediate judicial decisions had gradually eroded the regulator’s position, leading to this total disengagement.

The factual elements that make up the core of this dispute are numerous:

• In December 2020, the SEC initiated proceedings against Ripple for unregistered securities offering, targeting XRP sales ;
• The amount in question reaches $1.3 billion, according to the accusation ;
• In July 2023, a federal judge declared that sales on secondary platforms do not constitute a securities offering, weakening the SEC’s thesis ;
• Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple, were also personally targeted by the regulator ;
• After several appeals and counter-appeals, the SEC ultimately decided not to pursue, unconditionally ;
• Garlinghouse characterized the procedure as a “political maneuver” and stated that “the law has finally prevailed.”

This decision now paves the way for Ripple’s domestic activities to resume, which have been significantly hindered since 2020 due to the exclusion of XRP from many U.S. exchange platforms.

The SEC’s definitive withdrawal likewise prevents the establishment of a regulatory precedent applicable to other crypto projects.

Between Moderate Expectations and Potential Technical Rebound for XRP

The end of the litigation immediately influenced the markets. XRP recorded a 13 % increase, peaking at $2.56. In the wake, Bitcoin gained 2.2 %, climbing to $84,096, while Ethereum jumped 6.6 % reaching $2,031.

While the SEC’s announcement triggered an immediate response in XRP’s price, several analysts temper the enthusiasm.

Nicolai Sondergaard, an analyst at Nansen, stated: “it was, to be honest, already expected at this stage.” Moreover, he adds that “the macroeconomic situation and general uncertainty don’t really favor XRP.”

He explains that the market had already anticipated the abandonment of the proceedings, which limits the scope of the initial rebound observed in the markets. This lack of momentum would also be tied to a generally low-dynamic atmosphere across the crypto market.

Despite this short-term inertia, some technical signals suggest a more pronounced bullish potential in the coming weeks. Graphical configurations identified by several observers suggest a possibility of a 75 % rise for XRP by June.

The token bounced on the lower trendline of a technical triangle, with an interim target set at $2.35 and a potential peak at $4.35, if the bullish breakout is confirmed.

Conversely, a break below the base of the triangle could invalidate this scenario, bringing the price back around $1.28.

Beyond the technical considerations, resolving the case with the SEC could produce lasting effects on the regulatory climate and the perception of the crypto sector. Radin from Fideum believes that this development will have a “long-term positive effect on the market due to the change in narrative,” with a more open regulator and a more favorable institutional dynamic. In a context of political repositioning and heightened expectations surrounding cryptos, XRP could benefit from renewed momentum if external conditions align.