Is American Inflation the Inevitable Turning Point for Bitcoin's Rise?

The next publication of inflation data in the United States could be a key factor for the price of bitcoin. According to a recent report from 10x Research, a decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could trigger a new bullish rally, thus bringing BTC closer to its historical peaks.

Will a surprise on inflation catapult bitcoin to a new record?

The CPI data available on February 12, 2025, will influence expectations regarding the Fed’s policies. Lower-than-expected inflation could prompt the Fed to reduce interest rates, which would be favorable for risky assets like bitcoin.

In this regard, a recent report from 10x Research suggests that a decrease in inflation in the United States could indeed trigger another rise in BTC. Markus Thielen indicated that a drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could surprise the markets and lead to a significant increase in the price of bitcoin.

Analysts expect the annual CPI to be 2.9%. However, the Truflation index, which tracks inflation in real-time, decreased from 3.0% to 2.1%, suggesting that inflationary pressures could diminish faster than expected. If the CPI is below expectations, for example at 2.7% or 2.8%, this could trigger a powerful bitcoin rally. However, higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a massive sell-off of BTC.

BTC at 120,000 dollars before March?

Recently, bitcoin reserves on exchanges have reached a historically low level of 2.5 million BTC, signaling a scarcity of available supply. This decrease could lead to a supply shock, potentially conducive to a price increase. If this scarcity coincides with a drop in CPI, BTC could see a dramatic increase in the coming days. But, is a bitcoin at 120,000 dollars possible before March?

Given that BTC is currently trading around $96,069, reaching $120,000 before March seems very ambitious, even for the crypto queen. Such an increase would imply a rise of nearly 25% in a few weeks, which, while possible, would still require significant economic and financial catalysts.

The upcoming CPI data could therefore play a crucial role in the future price evolution of bitcoin. Investors are now closely monitoring these indicators, in order to adjust their strategies accordingly.