XRP In Danger: Why A 20% Drop Seems Inevitable

The XRP price is facing increasing technical and fundamental pressure, foreshadowing a major decline of 20% in the very near future. Three decisive factors are clearly emerging, and the future of XRP may already be sealed. In light of these concerning signals, investors will need to exercise increased vigilance and anticipate possible scenarios to protect their positions.

3 factors indicating an imminent drop of 20% for XRP?

Ripple, besides being accused of manipulating the market on XRP sales, is under pressure as its cryptocurrency could face an imminent drop. Three key factors suggest a major correction for XRP, increasing the risk of a 20% decrease.

A symmetrical triangle signaling a decline

On the weekly chart of XRP/USD, a symmetrical triangle has formed, signaling a phase of indecision between buyers and sellers. This type of configuration does not guarantee an upward trend and can lead to a bearish breakout. Historically, these patterns have often preceded marked declines, like Ethereum’s in 2018 (-80%). Applying this analysis to XRP, its bearish target is estimated at $1.46, representing a 20% correction, corresponding to its 50-week exponential moving average.

The Trump factor: Bitcoin favored, XRP neglected

The recent crypto summit at the White House dashed the hopes of ripple investors. Many anticipated an inclusion of the token in a strategic reserve for the United States, but the Trump administration clarified that the mentioned cryptos – Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and XRP – were only examples, without official validation.

Moreover, there is no evidence that the U.S. government holds XRP, unlike Bitcoin, where the state possesses around $17.7 billion. In this context, the XRP/BTC pair is therefore operating in a critical distribution zone, oscillating around the 200-2W EMA exponential moving average (2,459 satoshis). A breakout below this level could lead to a drop towards 1,700 satoshis, increasing the bearish pressure on XRP/USD.

A surge in volume synonymous with distribution

Another alarming signal for XRP is the sharp rise in its crypto transaction volumes, a phenomenon reminiscent of the bearish trend of 2021. According to analyst Martunn, ripple is currently undergoing a distribution phase, where major investors (whales) are selling their holdings after a significant price rise.

Since November 2024, XRP has surged by 600%, attracting many individual buyers. However, the progressive liquidation of whale positions suggests a possible trend reversal.

Crypto wallets holding more than one million XRP have seen their balance drop from 94.21 billion to 90.21 billion XRP in one year, erasing the gains from the post-electoral “Trump pump.” If this trend continues, the decrease in liquidity and the increase in selling pressure could lead to a major correction towards $1.46, thus validating the breakdown of the symmetrical triangle.

A truly inevitable drop?

Although several indicators suggest an imminent drop for ripple, a bullish breakout of the symmetrical triangle remains possible if the overall crypto market regains strength. A resurgence of institutional interest, increased adoption, or a favorable regulatory announcement could reverse the trend. Furthermore, if Bitcoin continues to rise, it could pull XRP along and mitigate the risk of a drop to $1.46.

The technical indicators, the evolution of political sentiment, and the dynamics of whales are thus converging towards a bearish outlook of 20% for XRP. Crypto investors must remain vigilant in the face of these signals and anticipate a potential market correction.