XRP ETF : 81 % Probability, But What’s Still In The Way ?

The crypto sector is used to anticipation and betting on the future. But when a probability rises to 81%, it stops being simple speculation to become a credible scenario. This is the case for the XRP ETF, whose approval in the year 2025 seems more and more plausible, according to the bets registered on Polymarket. While American regulators are still struggling to clarify their position on cryptocurrencies, this sudden rise in forecasts raises questions.

Market Optimism Facing an XRP ETF in 2025

The approval of an XRP ETF has become an increasingly plausible hypothesis after a series of positive signals. Indeed, the SEC has officially acknowledged Grayscale’s filing regarding ETFs based on XRP and Dogecoin. This type of recognition does not constitute an immediate validation but triggers a process of 240 days, the maximum time for a final decision. Polymarket, an online prediction platform, quickly reflected this enthusiasm: the probability of approval in 2025 has risen to 81%, compared to 70 % in January.

This dynamic had an immediate effect on the price of XRP, which surged by 10 % in two days, breaking the resistance of $2.50 to reach a peak of $2.78 on February 14. The bullish trend is explained by the anticipation of broader institutional adoption, as ETFs are viewed as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto market. However, some observers remain cautious, reminding that the outcome of the litigation between Ripple and the SEC could influence the fate of this ETF.

Regulatory Obstacles and Expected Timelines

While markets remain optimistic, industry experts temper this euphoria and highlight regulatory constraints. James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg, believes that the approval of an XRP ETF remains contingent on the outcome of the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC. As long as the legal situation of the company is not clarified, it is difficult to imagine a swift validation.

From a technical standpoint, even if the SEC grants its green light, other administrative steps remain to be taken. The approval of Form S-1, a document that details the investment strategies and associated risks of the ETF, could delay its effectiveness. Jeremy Hogan, a lawyer and influential figure in the XRP case, emphasizes in a post on the social network X (formerly Twitter) on February 10, 2025, that this process could take between 8 and 12 months after the initial authorization. This legal reality explains why only 45 % of bettors on Polymarket believe that approval before July 2025 is realistic.

The growing interest in an XRP ETF reflects a profound transformation in the crypto market, which seeks to structure itself around financial products that are more accessible to institutional investors. If the SEC ultimately validates this exchange-traded fund, XRP would become one of the first altcoins to benefit from a regulated investment framework, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, this advancement will depend on regulatory stability and the outcome of the legal tussle between Ripple and the SEC. Until then, the market could experience new waves of speculation and volatility, depending on regulatory decisions and economic outlooks. For investors, 2025 could be the year of triumph for XRP… or that of a thwarted hope.