Will the Ethereum ETF finally be adopted in 2026?

TD Cowen estimates that the SEC’s approval of Ethereum ETFs will not occur until at least 2025. Analysis of a forecast that reveals the regulatory obstacles to cryptocurrencies.

 Ethereum ETFs, An Approval Complicated by Political Issues

In a recent memo, analysts from the investment bank TD Cowen are pessimistic about an imminent authorization of spot Ethereum ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the US stock market regulator.

TD Cowen believes that political calculations by the Democratic chairman of the SEC, Gary Gensler, will lead him to defer this sensitive decision until after 2024. The idea being not to upset the left wing of his party, which is very wary of cryptocurrency.

An Initial Rejection that Would Delay the Deadline

Specifically, TD Cowen predicts that the SEC will reject the initial applications for direct Ethereum ETFs, particularly the one filed by VanEck. Following this refusal, new files will have to be compiled by the concerned financial actors.

Between the submission of new applications, their review by the SEC, and possible legal appeals in case of rejection, TD Cowen estimates that the green light for a spot Ethereum ETF could not occur before the end of 2025, or even early 2026.

A Striking Contrast with Bitcoin ETFs

This forecast sharply contrasts with the SEC’s recent approval of the very first ETFs directly linked to the price of Bitcoin. Yet, Gary Gensler had also faced strong criticism over this matter from Democrats.

But with his caution regarding Ethereum, the head of the SEC seems to be learning from the Bitcoin ETF controversy. He is clearly not willing to risk another confrontation with his own party before the end of his term.

 The Slow Removal of Regulatory Obstacles

TD Cowen’s analysis sheds light on the political and regulatory obstacles that still slow down the emergence of crypto investment products in the United States. Despite advances such as the Bitcoin ETFs, the road is long before a smooth integration of crypto-assets.

The green light for Ethereum ETFs, likely not before 2025, will be another decisive milestone. The SEC and its chairman seem, however, determined to take their time before fully opening up crypto finance to mainstream investors.

According to TD Cowen, patience is still required before the arrival of the first Ethereum ETFs. The bank does not anticipate SEC approval before at least 2025, due to political calculations. A cautious timeline that contrasts with the recently authorized Bitcoin ETFs.