Why Is Everyone Betting On A Six-figure Bitcoin?

While everything seems to point towards a six-figure Bitcoin, it is not yet for tomorrow. The markets predict an imminent surge, but the realities of the market impose a final brake. Behind the scenes, the battle between ETFs and long-term investors is reshuffling the cards. The $100,000 mark remains the ultimate psychological challenge for the flagship crypto, with forecasts that ignite the imagination.

Bitcoin: A dynamic that shakes up forecasts

If 2023 has been an exceptional year, 2024 promises an even more spectacular rise in the Bitcoin price. According to Kalshi data, BTC has an 85% chance of reaching $100,000 by the end of the year. And that’s not all: 9% of analysts even predict a Bitcoin flirting with $150,000, while a few optimists bet on a frenzy at $250,000.

Why this enthusiasm? The explanation lies in the convergence of several signals:

• An increase of 55% in the last quarter of 2023;
• A market capitalization potentially at $2.5 trillion;
• A massive absorption of selling pressures by ETFs (90%, according to Glassnode).

As summarized by the Kobeissi Letter, “the markets are already pricing in an explosion towards $100,000,” and the current figures verge on the irrational. But this euphoria rests on a fragile balance: old HODLers, attracted by monstrous profits, could slow progress with massive sales.

This is WILD:

Prediction markets are now beginning to price-in a chance of #Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year.

There is currently a rising 13% chance of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by December 31st, according to @Kalshi.

Meanwhile, odds of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 this year are… pic.twitter.com/8brFHgKpx2

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 22, 2024

Crypto investors: Between hope and temptation to take profits

The Bitcoin ETFs are at the center of the game, attracting record volumes. Data shows a historic week with inflows exceeding $100 billion in assets under management. However, this is not enough to calm the ardor of old investors, ready to cash in after years of waiting.

Glassnode observes that unrealized gains are reaching critical peaks, and a correction would even be healthy to stabilize the market. However, another factor comes into play: fierce competition between institutions and individuals. The latter, galvanized by opportunities, fear massive profit-taking that could crush the current momentum.

“History often repeats itself, but never in the same way,” experts say. The bullish momentum remains the strongest in a long time, but avoiding overheating will be necessary to see 2025 crown a historic bull run.