Why Bitcoin Could Still Fall Before Rising Again

As Bitcoin hovers around $95,000, the crypto community is questioning the possibility of a significant correction. Amid mixed technical signals and the historical patterns of Thanksgiving periods, the short-term future of the queen of cryptos remains uncertain.

Technical signals paint a mixed picture

The Bitcoin is currently in a critical phase after losing support at $95,000 on November 25. This break from a bullish chart pattern has led the crypto to seek refuge on its 100-day exponential moving average.

However, on-chain analysis brings a note of optimism: according to researcher Axel Adler Jr, the low level of “value destruction days” (below 2) indicates that long-term investors are firmly holding their positions, a historically bullish signal.

Analyst Javon Marks projects an ambitious target of $113,386, representing a potential increase of 20.7% from current levels. Conversely, experienced trader Horse identifies a probable retest zone between $82,000 and $88,500, based on volume profile analysis.

The Thanksgiving effect could weigh on Bitcoin’s price

Thanksgiving, this traditional American holiday celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November where families gather around a turkey, historically marks a particular period for financial markets.

Indeed, historical data shows that this day, when traditional American markets are closed, often coincides with a temporary drop in Bitcoin. The most striking example dates back to 2020, when a correction in November preceded a major rally in December.

Charles Edwards from Capriole Fund notes an interesting pattern: while Wednesdays are generally favorable for Bitcoin, Thanksgiving Thursdays have consistently seen drops over the past five years.

The next 24 hours will be crucial: a daily close above $95,000 would confirm a bullish scenario, while a failure to reclaim the 50-day exponential moving average could hasten a test of support around $90,000.

If Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong with high retention among historical holders, the Thanksgiving period and current technical resistances pose short-term challenges. The increased volatility expected in the coming days could provide opportunities for both buyers and sellers depending on their investment horizon.