Why Bitcoin Could Stagnate For Months

Bitcoin is going through a period of indecision. After reaching a peak of $109,000 in January 2025, its price dropped to $84,290, marking a correction of 23%. Some analysts believe that the leading cryptocurrency could enter a new consolidation phase of 8 months, a pattern similar to what was observed in 2024. This hypothesis is based on several technical indicators and the behavior of institutional investors.

Bitcoin: a chart pattern that raises questions

The “High Tight Flag” pattern, often considered a bullish signal, seems this time to show signs of weakness. According to Markus Thielen, an analyst at 10x Research, the current market configuration reflects more indecision than a true consolidation conducive to a recovery. Indeed, Bitcoin is oscillating within an uncertain corridor, fueled by outflows from ETFs and a lack of bullish catalysts.

Since the beginning of March, American Bitcoin ETFs have recorded cumulative outflows of $1.66 billion. This lack of interest in accumulating at reduced prices contrasts with previous bullish phases, where investors took advantage of corrections to strengthen their positions. The absence of a “buy-the-dip” movement highlights the market’s caution and the prevailing uncertainty. This, according to Thielen, could prolong the 8-month consolidation.

Institutional investors retreating

One of the key elements of the current dynamic is the low activity of hedge funds and institutional investors. Contrary to expectations, the spot Bitcoin ETF market has not served as a liquidity reservoir to cushion the decline. Moreover, the majority of the inflows observed previously seem to have been motivated by arbitrage strategies, rather than by long-term conviction.

This situation is partly explained by historically low funding rates, reducing the incentive to inject new capital into the market. This stagnation thus increases the risk of a new correction towards key technical levels.

What future for Bitcoin in the short term?

In light of this situation, several scenarios are being contemplated. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that Bitcoin could fall to $78,000, even $75,000 in the event of a break of the current support levels. For his part, Iliya Kalchev (Nexo) suggests that the $70,000 zone could provide a more stable base for a rebound.

Uncertainty remains. Without renewed interest from institutional investors or a triggering event, Bitcoin may evolve into a prolonged waiting phase. The market is now closely monitoring these macroeconomics signals and ETF flows, which will be crucial for the next impulse.