USA: Towards A More Severe Economic Slowdown Than Expected!

The American economy, that giant which once seemed unstoppable, now wobbles on a tightrope, caught between heightened trade tensions and a loss of domestic confidence. While some called it just a gust of wind, the storm could well be unexpectedly violent.

An economy under pressure: when the illusion of resilience crumbles

The latest Bloomberg barometer is no fairy tale. In just a few months, forecasts have darkened: a 45% chance of a recession within the year, up from only 30% previously.

A figure that slaps optimists like a whip in the ear. Expected growth for 2025 would only reach 1.4%, and 1.5% the following year, forecasts far from the hoped-for momentum.

The main culprit? A trade war reignited with massive tariffs, notably against China, the essential partner turned economic adversary. Households, the beating heart of the American economy, are beginning to ease off. Their spending, the true fuel of GDP, is slowing, foretelling less euphoric days ahead.

Adding to this pressure on domestic demand is a generalized loss of confidence. Businesses, caught between fiscal uncertainties and soaring costs, hesitate to invest. Even the usually unflappable American consumer is beginning to look at their wallet with concern.

Tariffs, declining exports: America retracts, the world holds its breath

The current trade policy resembles a risky poker game. With tariffs reaching historic heights (nearly 23%, according to Bloomberg Economics), imports temporarily surged — companies looking to stock up before the tax fully takes effect.

But this artificial boom masks a darker trend: a prolonged drop in exports, penalized by retaliations from Asia and beyond.

Added to this is an increasingly alarmist IMF, lowering its global growth forecasts and pointing out the domino effect these protectionist measures could trigger. Because if the American economy coughs, the rest of the globe stands a good chance of catching the flu.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is about to release decisive GDP figures. Unless a diplomatic miracle or a dazzling domestic recovery occurs, it is unlikely these results will reverse the trend.

In summary, what was brewing in the shadows yesterday is now playing out in broad daylight: the American economy, once the engine of global dynamism, is sliding toward a sharper slowdown than expected. China, meanwhile, pours fuel on the fire by banking on gold and cryptocurrencies, to the detriment of the greenback. One thing is certain: the cards are now in the hands of policymakers… but time is running out, and market patience may well be reaching its limits.