Uniswap Down 64% From Its Peak—A Buying Opportunity? February 13, 2024 Technical Analysis

After reaching a peak of $19.5, the price of Uniswap experienced a decline, bringing it back below $10. Discover Elyfe’s analysis and dissect the technical outlook of the UNI token.

Situation of Uniswap (UNI)

After bouncing above $5.6, Uniswap regained interest at the end of 2024, allowing its price to surpass the resistance of $17. This movement led the cryptocurrency to seek a new peak identified at $19.50. However, reaching this level triggered selling pressure, amplified by the overall crypto market decline, which impacted the price of UNI. The token first reached the support at $12, before yielding and falling towards the $7 zone, a key level supported by an important value area, just below the second monthly pivot support.

The hitting of this last level seemingly triggered buyer interest, which appears to be holding steady until today. Indeed, at the time of writing, the price of Uniswap oscillates above $8.8.

Although this rebound may seem encouraging, it is worth noting that the medium-term trend remains bearish. This dynamic is illustrated by the 50-day moving average, as well as the annual VWAP, which clearly orient downwards. However, the long-term trend remains bullish.

Regarding the bullish dynamic of Uniswap, it is not surprising that it has been questioned, although a rebound is observable. The latter is accompanied by a slight increase in buyer interest, visible through its price and the evolution of its oscillators.

The current technical analysis was conducted in collaboration with Elyfe, an investor and popularizer in the cryptocurrency market.

Focus on Uniswap (UNI) Derivatives

The open interest of UNI/USDT perpetual contracts recently declined before stabilizing in early February, while the price of Uniswap slightly progressed. This divergence suggests a reduction of short positions, alleviating the bearish pressure without signaling a significant influx of new buyers. Thus, the price recovery remains fragile and could lead to a consolidation phase awaiting a catalyst to confirm the future trend.

The analysis of CVD shows that it remains in a bearish trend, although it displays signs of stabilization. This suggests a predominance of sell orders, but with pressure that is gradually easing.

The funding rate has returned to positive territory, reflecting a renewed bullish conviction in progress.

Finally, since February 3, liquidations have remained limited on both sides of the market, with no significant movement for either buyers or sellers. This reflects a stable market, controlled volatility, and prudent risk management, indicating a certain balance.

The liquidation heat map of UNI/USDT contracts reveals that the liquidation zone below $10 has been breached downward. Thus, this level did not seemingly trigger significant enough buy orders for the cryptocurrency to truly rebound.

Currently, notable liquidation zones are above the price of UNI, at $11 and $12, with a higher and significant level around $13.5, then at $15.7 and beyond.

Below the current price, key zones can be noted at $8.6 and $7.5.

The approach of the price towards these levels could trigger a massive influx of orders, thereby increasing the risk of heightened volatility for the crypto. These areas thus represent a crucial point of interest for investors.

Forecasts for Uniswap (UNI) Price

• If the price of Uniswap manages to hold above $8.7, one could anticipate a rise to $12.5. The next resistance to watch, if the bullish movement continues, would be around $15, thus opening the door to reaching its last peak at $19.5. At this point, this would represent an increase of nearly 100%.

• Conversely, if the price of Uniswap fails to hold above $8.7, a pullback to $7 is conceivable. In the event of a continued bearish movement, the next key support could be around $6 and $5, opening the way for a return towards the next supports, located around $4. This would then represent a decrease of about 60%.

Conclusion

Uniswap shows signs of recovery after a correction phase, supported by a resurgence of buyer interest from a key level. However, the medium-term dynamics remain fragile, despite an underlying trend still oriented upwards. The confirmation of a sustainable reversal will depend on the market’s ability to maintain this momentum. Will the deployment of Unichain strengthen this dynamic? One thing is for sure, it will be essential to closely monitor the price reactions at strategic levels to confirm or adjust the current forecasts. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and that the price of cryptocurrencies can evolve rapidly based on other more fundamental factors.

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