Unemployment In France: An Unprecedented Peak In A Decade

The employment situation in France is experiencing a worrying deterioration. According to the latest figures published on January 27, 2025, by the Ministry of Labor, the number of job seekers without activity (category A) soared by 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. This represents an additional 117,000 unemployed individuals, bringing the total to 3.1 million people, a level not seen in a decade, excluding the Covid-19 period.

Unemployment sharply rising in France: a warning on the labor market

This marked increase is explained by several factors. On the economic front, GDP growth in 2024, estimated at 1.1% by Insee, slowed down at the end of the year, with stagnation in the last quarter. Furthermore, the end of post-Covid aid has led to a resurgence of business failures, reaching 65,764 cases over the year (+16.8%). Some large companies in France, such as Michelin or Casino, have also implemented social plans, increasing pressure on the labor market.

Young people are particularly affected by this deterioration. In fact, the number of job seekers under the age of 25 increased by 8.5% in the last quarter of 2024, a consequence of workforce adjustments by companies, where precarious contracts, often held by young people, are the first to be affected. The political uncertainty in France, notably since the dissolution of the National Assembly, has also weighed on hiring and investments, amplifying this trend.

A tense environment in 2025

This rise in unemployment in France occurs in the context of tense budget discussions for 2025. The government is considering reducing certain employment aids, such as social contribution exemptions or the apprenticeship bonus, which worries employer organizations. Medef has warned about the risks to the competitiveness of businesses, urging to avoid any measures that increase labor costs.

With an unemployment rate currently at 7.4%, Insee predicts an increase to 7.6% by mid-2025, while the Bank of France anticipates 7.8% by the end of 2025. For economists, this rebound is a warning signal, necessitating quick and coordinated measures to avoid a worsening of the situation in France, particularly for young people and the most precarious workers.