Trump's Rebound In The Polls: What Consequences For Bitcoin?

The crypto market holds its breath as the latest polls show a significant decline in Donald Trump’s chances of winning the U.S. presidential election. This development directly influences the prices of Bitcoin and major altcoins, which are pausing in their recent rise.

A political turnaround with immediate implications for Bitcoin

The predictive platform Polymarket has recorded a 4.5% drop in the chances of Donald Trump winning in just a few days. The former president, who previously maintained a comfortable lead of over 60% in winning chances, sees his score fall to 58.1%.

This decline is mainly explained by a loss of ground in crucial swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan, although he maintains a lead in other key states such as Arizona and Pennsylvania.

This new political dynamic has not failed to affect financial markets. A French trader reportedly placed a massive bet of 38 million dollars on Trump’s victory, hoping for a potential gain of 80 million dollars. This risky position illustrates the scale of financial stakes related to this election.

The growing sense of uncertainty is prompting many institutional investors to reassess their positions. Data reveals a significant transfer of 180,000 BTC, previously held by long-term investors, to ETF buyers.

Immediate impact on crypto prices

Bitcoin, which had reached 73,000 dollars at the beginning of the week, quickly corrected below the 70,000 dollar mark. This decline was accompanied by a more marked movement in the altcoin market, with Ethereum dropping below 2,500 dollars.

The spot Bitcoin ETFs are recording their first negative balance in eight trading sessions, despite the continued dominance of the BlackRock IBIT ETF, which totals more than 26 billion dollars in inflows. This correction reflects an increased caution among investors amid political uncertainty.

The market is also seeing an increase in leveraged positions, a sign of growing speculation around the electoral event. Experienced traders, like Peter Brandt, anticipate a possible continuation of the correction, while monitoring the crucial support level of 2,480 dollars for Ethereum.

This period of political uncertainty highlights the ongoing sensitivity of the crypto market to major political events, reminding us of the importance of prudent position management in this volatile context.