Trump: Towards A War With Putin?

The American presidential election of 2024 resulted in a resounding victory for Donald Trump, who wins the popular vote this time and improves his score from 2020. The Republicans regain control of the Senate and the House of Representatives!

Trump: a president with full powers

Donald Trump now has an unprecedented capacity for action. With 53 Republican seats in the Senate and a majority in the House, he benefits from strong parliamentary support. His control over the Republican Party has also strengthened since his first term.

The big players in American tech, previously hostile, now seem more conciliatory. Mark Zuckerberg himself expressed his admiration after Trump recovered from an assassination attempt.

This shift in the balance of power in favor of Trump gives him considerable latitude for action.

Trump: end of the war in Ukraine in 48 hours?

The Ukrainian dossier represents a major challenge for the new president. Contrary to popular belief, Trump is not an ally of Putin.

He was the one who, in 2018, provided Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, aid that Barack Obama had always refused.

The situation on the ground is evolving rapidly. The Russian army is advancing by about 30 km² per day, particularly around Kupiansk, which could fall before the end of the year. There are rumors of the arrival of 10,000 additional North Korean soldiers in the Kursk area.

What is Trump’s plan in Ukraine?

The plan to resolve the conflict includes several major measures.

Combat would be immediately frozen along the current front lines. Ukraine would agree to a partial demilitarization of its territory. European forces would conduct patrols along the new front line.

The United States would commit to supporting Ukraine’s rearmament to ensure its future security. In return, Kiev would renounce any NATO membership for a period of twenty years.

This plan appears to be unacceptable for Putin. It would place NATO forces (via European armies) directly at the Russian border, precisely what the Russian leader has sought to avoid since the conflict began.

Putin’s trump cards

Vladimir Putin has several major strategic assets. His defense industry is now operating at full capacity after two years of mobilization. His armed forces are making significant gains on the Ukrainian ground. He can also rely on a potential political destabilization in Germany, where early elections could take place in March 2024.

The general weakening of European military capabilities also plays in his favor.

The Russian president may be tempted to continue his offensive rather than accept a compromise, particularly during the transition period before Trump’s inauguration at the end of January 2024.

The risks of escalation

The situation carries significant risks of ignition. Trump has already shown his ability to undertake bold military actions, such as the bombardments in Syria in 2017.

A direct confrontation between Trump and Putin could create space for other international actors.

China in particular could take advantage of increased American focus on the European front to advance its own agenda in the region (Taiwan).

Trump will make Europe pay

The American peace plan also aims to make Europeans take responsibility. By entrusting them with monitoring the Russo-Ukrainian border, Trump forces them to assume a more significant military role, in line with his repeated demands for increased defense budgets.

However, Europe is going through a period of instability. The German coalition, the pillar of the Union since reunification, has just exploded. A possible victory for the right in early elections in Germany could reshuffle the cards of European politics.

Before Trump’s inauguration

The three months leading up to Trump’s inauguration look decisive. The speed of Russian advances, political developments in Germany, and Europe’s ability to mobilize will largely determine the available options for the new American president.

Without a hostile transition like in 2020, Donald Trump will quickly have all the levers of power. It remains to be seen how he will use them against a Vladimir Putin who, according to his initial reactions, seems aware of the challenges posed by this new Trump mandate.

Global stability will largely depend on how these two leaders manage their inevitable confrontation. While a frontal clash seems likely on the Ukrainian issue, it could pave the way for other major geopolitical disruptions.

The recent authorization given to American private military companies to operate in Ukraine marks a potential new escalation. This decision, made by the Biden administration but possibly coordinated with Trump’s transition team, could be interpreted by Moscow as a direct provocation. The risk is real that the conflict could intensify if Russia views this presence as a disguised American intervention.

What about the conflict between Iran and Israel?

The focus on Ukraine could have unintended repercussions in other areas of tension. Iran, which seemed ready to retaliate against Israeli strikes during the American electoral period, temporarily suspended its plans in light of Trump’s clear victory. However, this restraint may be short-lived.

The Israeli case deserves special attention. Netanyahu’s strategy, aimed at pushing Iran to the brink to draw the U.S. into a broader conflict, could find in Trump a more receptive ally. Contrary to popular belief, Trump is not opposed to targeted military actions. He has demonstrated his willingness to use force when he deems it necessary, favoring airstrikes over ground troop deployments.

Towards a technological soft power?

Trump’s arrival marks a radical shift in the attitude of American economic elites. The giants of Silicon Valley, traditionally aligned with Democratic positions, seem to be making a strategic shift. This turnaround is partly explained by their disillusionment with the Democratic Party, especially after the controversial replacement of Biden by Kamala Harris.

Big bosses like Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg, and the leaders of Google are reevaluating their positions. This evolution is not trivial: it suggests a possible reconciliation between Trump and a significant part of American soft power. Their support, even if tacit, considerably strengthens the president’s position and his ability to act on the international stage.

This change in attitude also reflects a deeper transformation within the American technological elite. In California, a traditional bastion of Democrats, there is a gradual shift to the right. This movement, which began in recent years, is accelerating in response to perceived excesses of “wokism” embodied by certain positions of Kamala Harris.

The convergence between Trump and tech elites could lead to a new form of American power projection. The tensions that marked his first term, particularly with social networks and major platforms, could give way to closer collaboration. This informal alliance would significantly strengthen the global influence of the United States, combining military hard power and technological soft power.

The 3rd World War?

The upcoming period represents an unprecedented challenge for the international order. The confrontation between Trump and Putin over Ukraine could lead to three scenarios: a negotiated de-escalation, a controlled intensification of the conflict, or a dangerous escalation towards a direct confrontation.

Without a hostile transition like in 2020, Donald Trump will quickly have all the levers of power. It remains to be seen how he will use them against a Vladimir Putin. If a frontal clash seems likely on the Ukrainian issue, it could pave the way for other major geopolitical upheavals : Iran, China…