Trade Tensions Rise : French Economy Under Pressure

A new trade confrontation is emerging between the two shores of the Atlantic. Through the announcement of a 20 % tariff on all European products, Washington is directly targeting the exports of the Old Continent. France, at the forefront, faces the looming threat of a major economic shock. Between the vulnerability of strategic sectors and diplomatic urgencies, Paris must react quickly. Behind this American decision lies much more than a tariff battle : it is the entire architecture of transatlantic trade relations that is at stake.

An American Taxation with Feared Consequences

The decision by Washington to impose customs duties of 20 % on all European products has provoked a strong reaction in Paris. Thus, Prime Minister François Bayrou expressed his concern in unequivocal terms:

We risk losing more than 0.5 % of GDP if nothing is done.

Furthermore, he emphasizes the direct threat to the French economy. Several strategic sectors find themselves on the front line, with an increased risk of falling competitiveness in exports. In 2024, French aerospace exports to the United States exceeded 9 billion euros, illustrating the country’s dependence on this market.

The most exposed products are:

• Aerospace, the largest export category to the United States ;
• Wines, champagnes, and spirits, symbols of French know-how ;
• Automotive, with a production chain closely linked to the North American market ;
• Luxury goods, particularly sensitive to import taxation ;
• Cheeses and dairy products, frequently targeted during previous trade episodes.

Beyond these sectors, the knock-on effects are likely to be felt throughout the entire economic fabric. Exporting or subcontracting SMEs could suffer contract losses, while tensions on supply chains could hinder investments and hiring.

An atmosphere of uncertainty is settling in, bringing with it the specter of a generalized slowdown in an already fragile economic context.

European Countermeasures and the Waiting Strategy in Paris

As the potential consequences of this trade war cause concern, French and European authorities are working to structure a coordinated response to Trump’s tariffs. Economy Minister Éric Lombard has announced the convening of a “business council” scheduled for April 14 in Bercy. Thus, he has involved the main employer organizations in an urgent consultation approach.

For her part, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, clarified that “it is not too late to negotiate” and mentioned the ongoing development of a “new package of countermeasures” aimed at preserving European interests should discussions fail with the Trump administration.

These announcements demonstrate a willingness to curb escalation through diplomatic and economic levers, but also highlight the limits of France’s ability to maneuver alone. The bet on a rapid de-escalation largely depends on the dialogue channels still open with the American administration.

At the same time, Paris seems to avoid any haste and prefers to structure its position with the support of Brussels. This balancing act aims to temporize immediate effects without worsening tensions, in order to preserve the credibility of the Union in an increasingly unpredictable international context.

If a negotiated exit from the crisis remains conceivable, it will largely depend on the dynamics of the coming weeks and Europe’s ability to impose a balanced power dynamic. In the background, this sequence could reignite the debate on European strategic autonomy, particularly in sectors deemed sensitive. At a time when the United States seems to be returning to an overt protectionism under Trump, the EU will need to demonstrate that it can defend its economic interests with coherence and firmness.