Toncoin Losing Momentum: Should We Be Worried? Technical Analysis As Of December 19, 2024

After a period of bearish pressure, Toncoin has seen a resurgence of interest that struggles to maintain itself. Let’s examine the upcoming prospects for the price of TON.

Situation of Toncoin (TON)

Toncoin experienced a meteoric rise, reaching an all-time high of $8.28. However, this level triggered strong selling pressure, causing a drop of over 45% in its price. The cryptocurrency has nevertheless found new momentum around $4.45, spurring renewed interest. The latest fluctuations of TON then created a double bottom pattern, often signaling a trend reversal. This pattern was broken upwards, allowing the price of Toncoin to reach the resistance at $6.8. Unfortunately, this threshold was not exceeded, leading to renewed selling interest that weighed on the price of the cryptocurrency.

Indeed, at the time these lines are written, the price of TON is around $5.46. It is interesting to note that this price level is just above a notable value zone, itself located on the first monthly pivot support. The cryptocurrency has thus recorded a bearish retracement of about 78.60% from its last daily impulse, naturally questioning its short-term trend. However, it is essential to emphasize that medium and long-term trends remain bullish. This perspective is supported by the bullish crossover of the 50 and 200-day moving averages. Nevertheless, all these bearish fluctuations have undeniably affected the positive momentum of the cryptocurrency, impacting both its price and its oscillatory indicators.

The current technical analysis was conducted in collaboration with Elie FT, an investor and passionate trader in the cryptocurrency market. Now a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of active proprietary traders since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content, and mutual support around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Zoom on Toncoin derivatives (TON/SDT)

The open interest on TON/USDT perpetual contracts has shown a correlation with the decline in the price of the cryptocurrency, suggesting an exit from speculative positions. The CVD and funding rates, also revised downwards, reflect a certain pessimism among investors. On the liquidation side, recent ones have been minor, indicating a relatively balanced market where buyers and sellers seem aligned on the current direction of the crypto. However, it is important to note that a historical peak in long position liquidations was recorded on December 9, reaching $7.6 million, according to Velodata. This phenomenon could indicate a recent forced capitulation of buyers in the price of the cryptocurrency.

The heatmap of liquidations for TON/USDT perpetual contracts reveals that the cryptocurrency has reached a liquidation zone that has clearly triggered selling interest, leading to a downward revision of its price. Currently, notable liquidation zones are located on either side of the current price of the crypto. Above, there is a wide zone around $7. Below, a subtle zone is visible above $6. Below the current price, the most pronounced zone is around $4.6. The approach of the price towards these levels could lead to a massive triggering of orders, thus increasing the risk of heightened volatility for the crypto. These zones thus represent a crucial point of interest for investors.

Forecasts for the price of Toncoin (TON)

• If the price of TON remains above $4.45, a return towards $6.8, or even $7.2, could be considered. If the bullish movement continues, the next resistance would be around $7.7. Beyond that, the ATH of the cryptocurrency could be reached just below $8.28, representing an increase of over 51%.

• Conversely, if the price of TON fails to remain above $4.45, a pullback towards $4 is conceivable. If the bearish movement continues, support could be found between $3.7 and $3.3. Even lower, the level of $2.7 is notable. Such a development would represent a decrease of about 50%.

Conclusion

Despite a marked correction and persistent selling pressure, Toncoin maintains bullish foundations in the medium and long term. Its current position above a key zone could pave the way for a recovery if conditions allow. Thus, it will be crucial to closely monitor the price reaction at key levels to validate or revise the current forecasts. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can, moreover, evolve rapidly based on other more fundamental factors.