This Is The Year When AI Will Finally Compete With Humans.

It is almost ironic that we live in a time when AI, once a mere fantasy of science fiction, is now on the verge of rivaling human brains. According to Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, this futuristic vision could become a reality as early as 2026. A bold assertion that raises as much hope as it does concern. But beware, the history of technology is filled with sparkling promises that have turned into fleeting sparks. So, should we believe in it or prepare our aluminum hats?

A frenzied race to the top of AI

When Amodei talks about reaching skill levels comparable to a PhD in the blink of a digital eye, ears perk up.

Comparing the evolution of AGI to an educational journey, he emphasizes that if 2023 was the year of “high school students,” 2024 is that of “undergraduate-level students” and 2025 might very well be equivalent to a doctoral thesis at a grandes écoles. All with quiet confidence: “We will get there in 2026 or 2027,” he states.

This rapid progression is however underpinned by risks that crypto enthusiasts know well.

Lack of data, scalability limitations of clusters, and geopolitical tensions threatening the supply of electronic chips are all pebbles in the shoe of this advancement.

A detail that reminds investors that even the cryptocurrency market, subject to fluctuations as sudden as a roller coaster ride, can reflect these technological uncertainties. The acceleration of AI could be hindered by an external crisis, just like crypto suffers the impact of regulations and the global economy.

A great power, monumental stakes

The flash of enthusiasm is followed by the shadow of implications. Amodei does not hide his concern: “With great power comes great responsibility.” A phrase that, although cliché, is nonetheless relevant.

If AI reaches and exceeds human capabilities across a wide range of cognitive tasks, the consequences could be radical.

Some good things, of course. Unprecedented efficiency, medical breakthroughs, unprecedented innovations. But also some bad. For history shows that when a technology exceeds comprehension, the line between miracle and threat dangerously narrows.

The rivalry between Anthropic and OpenAI to achieve this technological Grail embodies more than just a race between companies. It symbolizes a new era where man and machine, once collaborators, could become rivals. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, shares this optimistic vision and predicts that AGI will emerge within five years. But then, who will be the first to cross the finish line? And above all, at what price?

The question remains: what will the world look like in 2026 if AI truly rivals man? Is it the dawn of an era of prosperity where AI simplifies and enriches our lives? Or, as with the crypto market where the curves rise as quickly as they plummet, is it the prelude to a complex, even precarious, balance between benefit and drift?