The U.S. PCE Report This Friday Could Trigger A Bitcoin Rally

All eyes are on the PCE index, a barometer of inflation in the United States. Expected this March 28, this figure could trigger a shake-up in risk asset markets. Bitcoin, in the crosshairs, could be the first beneficiary or the first victim. In a climate of geopolitical tensions and monetary uncertainties, this publication serves as a decisive test to gauge speculative appetite and the strength of the bullish momentum on cryptos.

An American statistic under global surveillance

As Friday, March 28 approaches, the crypto market holds its breath. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the PCE index that day, a decisive indicator of American inflation. Several signals indicate that this figure could strongly influence the price of bitcoin.

The QCP Group, a crypto manager based in Singapore, notably stated on the social network Telegram:

Attention will turn to the PCE inflation report, which could become the next key catalyst.

Here are the key elements of this anticipation:

• The PCE report measures the prices of goods and services paid by American households, and serves as a major reference for the Fed’s monetary policy.
• The market is observing an accumulation of call options beyond $100,000 for BTC, but QCP estimates that this positioning alone should not trigger major volatility.
• A decrease in inflation in this report would be seen as a favorable signal for risk assets and would strengthen interest in bitcoin.

In this context, analysts are scrutinizing each index for potential directional shifts. A figure below expectations would reinforce the thesis of monetary easing, which could reignite risk appetite.

Conversely, a positive surprise would rekindle fears of a more aggressive Fed, which would limit immediate prospects for crypto assets.

April, a historic month and bullish outlook for bitcoin

Other factors are fueling optimism in the market. Historically, April proves particularly favorable for bitcoin, with an average monthly return of 12.9% according to CoinGlass data.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current CIO of Maelstrom, presents an ambitious projection: “Bitcoin is more likely to reach a new all-time high of $110,000 before dropping back to $76,500.”

This scenario is based on a conjunction of technical and fundamental indicators deemed favorable. The analysis by Juan Pellicer, a senior researcher at IntoTheBlock, confirms this climate of confidence. He observes a recovery in institutional engagement, coupled with the easing of American monetary policy.

“The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to ease its monetary tightening could also favor a short-term price increase,” he notes. This context, combined with increased interest in Bitcoin ETFs, fuels the most optimistic projections.

The publication of the PCE could thus mark the tipping point between consolidation and a new rally. However, this prospect remains conditioned by an still uncertain economic environment. The coming weeks should provide a clearer reading of the intentions of major central banks, and of bitcoin’s ability to extend its upward trajectory or to take a strategic pause.