The S&P 500 Is Becoming Riskier Than Bitcoin

The financial landscape is rocking. While bitcoin, often criticized for its legendary volatility, goes through a phase of relative stability, the S&P 500 is surging like a speculative asset. Irony of fate: the flagship index of Wall Street, a symbol of traditional finance, is now rivaling the unpredictability of memecoins. A role reversal that questions certainties and redraws the lines between risk and safety.

The new playground for speculators?

The recent drop of the S&P 500 is not just a simple correction. It’s a chaotic tango, where each session resembles a game of Russian roulette. On Thursday, a plunge to 5,115 points, followed by a partial rebound, left traders breathless. Result: a loss of 14% since February, despite a fleeting upturn on Wednesday.

How to explain this metamorphosis? The inflation figures, although encouraging, were not enough to calm the markets. Behind the scenes, the trade war with China acts as a panic catalyst.

According to Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg, the index recorded six consecutive days of fluctuations exceeding 6% – a performance that would even eclipse the worst sequences of bitcoin.

Tariff announcements follow one another, creating a climate of distrust. Worse: high-frequency trading algorithms amplify every movement, transforming the S&P 500 into a gigantic digital casino.

Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, tries to downplay it: “Nothing unusual”, he assures. Yet, institutional investors, used to the caution of blue-chip indices, are adjusting their strategies.

Some flee to bonds, others test precious metals. One question remains: what if the real systemic risk no longer came from bitcoin, but from the old economy?

Bitcoin: lifebuoy or mirage in the storm?

As the S&P 500 wavers, bitcoin observes the scene with quiet irony. The digital asset, often labeled as the ultimate risk, has displayed lower volatility than the stock index since mid-March. A paradox that shakes narratives. Should bitcoin’s detractors rethink their stance?

Several factors explain this resilience. First, bitcoin benefits from a declining correlation with stock markets, reinforcing its status as a hedge against uncertainty. Next, its cap of 21 million units makes it a refuge against expansive monetary policies. Finally, capital flees turbulent zones to nest in assets perceived as decentralized – or at least, less exposed to geopolitical whims.

But beware of succumbing to angelism. While bitcoin is holding up better today, its history is marked by spectacular crashes. Its valuation remains dependent on massive adoption and regulations – two variables that are still unstable. Nevertheless, the comparison with the S&P 500 raises a provocative hypothesis: what if deregulated finance, embodied by bitcoin, suddenly offered a form of relative stability? Still, remain cautious: some analysts foresee dark times for the coming months.