The 3 Signals That Bitcoin Could Explode (or Collapse) In 2025

As 2024 comes to an end, Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, seems to have put its flamboyance away for the festive season. With a price hovering around $93,000, investors are taking a pause. However, some are hoping for a spectacular awakening for the crypto market as the inauguration of Donald Trump approaches in January. A look back at a tumultuous week and the weak but crucial signals.

Bitcoin: from peaks to year-end turbulence

In 2024, the price of bitcoin made headlines by reaching a historic high of $108,000, powered by the “Trump Bump.” But since then, the euphoria has faded: the flagship cryptocurrency now navigates between $92,500 and $99,000, weighed down by sluggish activity related to the holidays and thus plummeting transactions.

According to Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex, “Bitcoin has remained stuck in a narrow range due to declining institutional volumes.”

Although volatility is an old acquaintance for bitcoin, analysts note a unique momentum this year:

• $108,000: peak reached in October 2024;
• $92,564: lowest point on December 24;
• 56.49%: Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market.

MicroStrategy has acquired 5,262 BTC for ~$561 million at ~$106,662 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 47.4% QTD and 73.7% YTD. As of 12/22/2024, we hodl 444,262 $BTC acquired for ~$27.7 billion at ~$62,257 per bitcoin. $MSTR https://t.co/asDGerBV7q

— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) December 23, 2024

Meanwhile, giants like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate BTC (1), having recently added 5,200 units to their treasury. This bold move raises questions about institutional intentions: strategic accumulation or risky bet against a potential rise of Trump?

Crypto market: between expectations and concerns

The crypto market has not been spared this week, with global capitalization slightly down to $3.27 trillion. Ethereum, the runner-up, followed the descent with a range between $3,275 and $3,535.

In the meantime, stablecoins and DeFi maintain relatively stable activity, representing 91.52% and 8.15% of traded volumes, respectively. However, the overall climate remains marked by cautious neutrality, illustrated by the fear and greed index frozen at 50.

Another worrying signal: hackers are becoming increasingly creative (2) in emptying investors’ wallets. Taylor Monahan has alerted to sophisticated scams where fake recruiters prompt their targets to install malware.

In 2024, funds stolen increased by approximately 21.07% year-over-year (YoY) to $2.2 billion, and the number of individual hacking incidents increased from 282 in 2023 to 303 in 2024. pic.twitter.com/rZx8RH9a1u

— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) December 19, 2024

This climate of distrust weighs on the market, as some hope for a resurgence of interest as the inauguration of Donald Trump (3) approaches, seen as a potential catalyst for bitcoin.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, adds a fourth point:

« One-off events should also play a role, particularly the year-end holidays, which are expected to temporarily reduce market liquidity. However, conditions are likely to improve in January with the anticipated start of FTX repayments on January 3, releasing $16 billion to compensate users. This event should enhance overall market liquidity. »

Finally, Arthur Hayes does not view Trump’s inauguration in a favorable light: he even anticipates a massive collapse of cryptos. While his pessimism contrasts with the prevailing wait-and-see attitude, he reminds us that surprises, good or bad, are never lacking in the universe of cryptos.