Theme Taxation

The minutes of the Fed published on October 8 confirm an expected but delicate monetary shift. While the rate cut is now underway, the extent of the move by the end of the year still divides the committee. In a context of slowing employment, contained inflation, and government paralysis, this shift weighs heavily on market expectations. For crypto investors, sensitive to monetary policy signals, every Fed hesitation becomes a factor of volatility.

Markets are almost unanimously betting on a rate cut on October 29. However, a much quieter scenario is starting to worry: that of a Fed status quo. In a context of incomplete economic data and persistent uncertainties about growth, the hypothesis of strategic immobility is gaining ground. What if this scenario, still largely underestimated, triggered the most violent market reaction?

The prospect of increasing the flat tax resurfaces in budget discussions. Ahead of the 2026 finance bill, Bercy would consider raising the single flat tax, set since 2018 at 30%. No decision has been made yet, but the return of this measure, long considered a fiscal marker of Macronism, is already causing tensions. In a context of structural deficit and revenue pressures, the stability of the savings tax framework could be called into question.

The PCE inflation figures for the month of August, published this Friday, September 27, confirm apparent stability, with progress as expected. A key indicator for the Federal Reserve, the PCE remains above the target, while American consumption continues to surprise with its strength. In a context of monetary tension, these data maintain uncertainty about the future trajectory of interest rates.

The Federal Reserve has made its decision, but without certainty. According to Jerome Powell, no interest rate adjustment will be without consequences. While several central banks have started a cycle of rate cuts, the Fed chairman warns of a strategic deadlock. In a context where inflation remains resilient and employment wavers, every decision becomes risky. A strong signal sent to the markets closely watching every word from the Fed as a decisive monetary turning point approaches.

This Wednesday, September 17, the US central bank is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points. A decision already priced in by the markets, but far from trivial, as inflation remains above target and employment slows down. Behind this monetary shift, investors are looking for a signal. Temporary shock or catalyst for a new cycle? From bitcoin to gold, through Wall Street, all assets are watching Jerome Powell’s verdict.

The showdown between Donald Trump and the American Federal Reserve reaches an unprecedented threshold. On September 9, the federal court suspended the dismissal of Lisa Cook, Fed governor, decided by the American president. A rare decision that highlights the major stake of this conflict: the independence of the central bank against political pressures. Ahead of a strategic meeting on rates, this judicial halt revives the debate on the limits of executive power in conducting monetary policy.

The hierarchy of European sovereign debts has just shifted. On Tuesday, September 9, France borrows at a higher rate than Italy on ten-year bonds. Less than 24 hours after the fall of the Bayrou government, the markets have decided: the French signature is no longer a refuge. This reversal, unprecedented in over a decade, marks a loss of confidence affecting the State's budgetary credibility.

At this back-to-school period, major banks are revising their outlook. Faced with a clear slowdown in the American economy, the idea of two to three rate cuts this year is gradually taking hold. Investors, hanging on the Fed’s slightest signals, see in this change of course a potential turning point.

Two weeks before a crucial Federal Reserve meeting, the governor, expected to succeed Jerome Powell in 2026, stood out with an unambiguous statement. He wants a rate cut as early as September. In an interview with CNBC, he said the US economy requires an immediate adjustment, breaking with the caution shown by other monetary officials.

The debt is making headlines again on both sides of the Atlantic. Bitcoin is ready to soar if the Fed and the ECB were to bring back the printing press.

In the midst of geopolitical reshuffling, the European Union and the United States have just ratified a trade compromise presented as a bulwark against escalation. Supported by Ursula von der Leyen, but strongly criticized by Mario Draghi, the text crystallizes a European dilemma: guaranteeing transatlantic stability or fully defending the continent's industrial interests. Between diplomatic balance and tariff concessions, this new agreement revives the debate on Europe's economic sovereignty.

A new proposal in the New York State Assembly aims to impose a small tax on cryptocurrency sales and transfers. Assemblymember Phil Steck has introduced legislation seeking a 0.2% excise tax on digital asset transactions, including cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The bill, if passed, could reshape the way the state approaches digital finance while channeling revenue into school-based substance abuse prevention programs.

While the majority anticipated a Fed rate cut in September, a key indicator casts doubt. The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) release rekindles inflation fears and cools hopes for monetary easing. This subtle but meaningful reversal reshuffles the deck in a context where Fed policy dictates the rhythm of risky assets, and more than ever, that of the crypto market.

As global trade lines are redrawn under geopolitical pressure, Donald Trump reveals his cards. Before a meeting in Scotland with Ursula von der Leyen, the American president warns: no customs tariff lower than 15% will be granted to the European Union. This firm stance, with direct repercussions on transatlantic flows, could also impact strategic sectors such as digital and blockchain. Behind this maneuver lies an economic showdown between two opposing views of commercial sovereignty.

In response to the increase in customs duties decreed by Donald Trump, 30% on European imports starting August 1st, Brussels is deploying heavy artillery. The Commission has approved a counter-tariff attack of 93 billion euros, targeting strategic American sectors. An economic escalation is unfolding between two major blocs, against a backdrop of political tensions and fragile global trade.

Brussels holds its breath. As August 1st approaches, the trade dispute with Washington slides into strategic confrontation. In the face of the threat of a 30% surcharge on European imports, Paris and Berlin demand a firm response. Their goal: to push the EU to activate, for the first time, the anti-coercion instrument.

The preferred savings account of the French is about to face a serious setback. The rate of the Livret A, held by more than 55 million people, will drop to 1.7% on August 1, 2025, down from 2.4% today. This is a significant decline, the largest since 2009, validated by the Banque de France and in accordance with the regulatory formula. In an still fragile economic climate, this decision reignites the debate on the profitability of regulated savings and raises questions about the future choices of savers in search of alternative solutions.

Since the beginning of July, investors have been lending to Italy at a lower rate than that demanded for France. Indeed, the curve has inverted for the first time since 2005, weakening Paris's position in the hierarchy of sovereign risk in the euro area. Yet, France maintains a better rating. This paradox points to a perceptible reality: markets are doubtful. And in this hesitation, alternative assets are gaining ground.

At a time when trade tensions are reshaping global power dynamics, Europe faces a direct threat: Washington has imposed a deadline of July 9 to reach a bilateral agreement. After this date, tariffs of up to 70% would hit European exports starting August 1. In this high-tension climate, Brussels is attempting to avoid a head-on clash with a U.S. administration determined to enforce its rules. An express negotiation is underway to prevent a shift to a tariff confrontation.

While markets were expecting a clear monetary shift in 2025, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, dampened hopes by pointing to an unexpected culprit: Trump. Yes, Donald Trump, back in the White House since January, is leaving his mark on the American economy, to the point of forcing the Fed to play for time. In a context where every word matters, Powell dropped a diplomatic bombshell, accusing Trump's policies of blocking interest rate cuts.

In an economic climate marked by geopolitical tensions and a wait-and-see approach regarding the Fed's decisions, Morgan Stanley disrupts the consensus. The investment bank anticipates seven rate cuts in 2026, starting in March, with a terminal rate between 2.5% and 2.75%. This sharp projection, published on June 25th, contrasts with the prevailing caution and reignites debates about the U.S. monetary calendar.

When Trump insults, Waller anticipates, Powell temporizes and the economy stalls: who will win this strange dance of rates orchestrated between inflation, unemployment, and a monetary nerve war?

By maintaining its benchmark rates for the fourth consecutive time, the Fed has not simply extended a monetary policy. It has taken a stance in a tense economic and political landscape. Stubborn inflation, weakened growth, barely concealed political pressure... The status quo decided on June 18 resembles a statement of intent. Behind the silence of the numbers, a strategy of resistance is taking shape as the central bank finds itself at the heart of an increasingly unstable balancing act.

In the turmoil of global commercial reconfigurations, Beijing is advancing its pawns. China announces the complete removal of tariffs on exports from 53 African countries, expanding preferential access to its market. Behind this gesture lies a targeted diplomatic offensive as Washington, under the leadership of Donald Trump, reactivates protectionist levers against the continent. Africa, long peripheral in geo-economic arbitration, is becoming the epicenter of a clash of influences where industrial ambitions, strategic alliances, and narratives of sovereignty intersect.

Will the Fed really keep its rates unchanged in June? Between persistent inflation and a surprising labor market, discover why this decision could disrupt the economy and the markets, including Bitcoin!

Donald Trump has just lost a key battle over his tariff rights: a U.S. court has put the brakes on him. Discover how this decision shakes China, the markets, and challenges presidential powers.

Fed meeting June 2025: inflation, unemployment, trade tensions... Discover how these crucial issues could disrupt interest rates and why some are already betting on bitcoin. Don't miss out!