Immobilier

Rents in France continue to rise in 2025, putting pressure on household budgets in a rapidly transforming real estate market. With an average cost of 723 euros per month including charges, the increase reaches 3.3% compared to 2024. This phenomenon, which spans the entire territory, reveals significant disparities between major metropolitan areas and more affordable cities. While some regions experience a surge in prices, others remain more accessible. What are the factors behind this rental inflation and which cities are the most affected?

The dream of owning a detached house with a garden, shared by nearly 80% of the French according to a recent study, could soon become unattainable. The reason is a reform introduced by the Climate Resilience Law which aims to reduce land artificialization to preserve natural, agricultural, and forested areas. By 2050, this measure aims to achieve "net zero artificialization," which radically changes urban planning rules. This project, although ecological, is already causing a surge in the price of buildable land and limiting its availability, raising concerns among future homeowners and real estate professionals.

The mortgage credit market is undergoing a major shift at the beginning of 2025. After a rapid increase between 2022 and 2023, interest rates have been continuously declining for more than a year, with the hope that they will fall below the symbolic threshold of 3% in the coming months. This evolution, driven by the slowdown in inflation and the accommodative monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), is attracting the attention of households and investors. However, these promising figures are set against a fragile economic context, characterized by low growth and rising financial uncertainties. It therefore becomes crucial to understand the underlying issues and their implications for the future.

For the past two years, the French real estate market has been undergoing a deep crisis, fueled by soaring prices and difficulties in accessing credit. In response to this critical situation, François Bayrou, the Prime Minister, presented a set of measures aimed at revitalizing this vital sector for the national economy. Focused on tax incentives, increased support for construction, and regulatory adjustments, these proposals seek to address current challenges while considering social and environmental issues. While these initiatives spark hope for a rebound, they also raise many questions about their effectiveness and implementation.

The housing credit market in France is undergoing a significant shift. After a period marked by high interest rates, which hindered access to property ownership, the trend is reversing. François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France, announced that mortgage rates fell below 3.4% in November 2024, down from 4% in January. This drop is attributed to a slowdown in inflation, which is expected to reach 1.5% in 2025, after having weighed on the economy in recent years. This development is a relief for borrowers, but its implications go beyond the real estate sector. A relaxation of credit costs generally promotes economic recovery, restoring purchasing power to households and encouraging investment. This dynamic could also impact other asset classes, particularly cryptocurrencies. A more stable economy and smoother access to financing prompt some investors to reassess their strategies. With this drop in rates and the anticipation of possible monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB), the real estate market could regain a more favorable dynamic.

Since January 1, 2025, the French real estate sector is entering a new era. The changes go beyond a simple revision of previous rules. They reflect a political will to strengthen ecological requirements and adapt the tax framework to an uncertain economic context. The ban on renting energy-rated G housing, for example, embodies this priority given to the energy transition. At the same time, major fiscal upheavals, such as the end of the Pinel scheme or the postponement of the Zero-Rate Loan, are redefining incentives for investors and households. Finally, the continuation of the "anti-Airbnb law" and the stability of notary fees complete this picture of reforms, where each measure shapes the delicate balance between the expectations of property owners, the needs of tenants, and environmental imperatives. These adjustments, far from being anecdotal, herald a profound transformation of the real estate market.

The year 2024 marks a major shift for the French real estate market. Indeed, the dynamics that have structured this sector for decades are gradually fading, giving way to profound changes. The massive decline in transactions, the hesitant restart of real estate purchasing power, and the growing importance of energy criteria are reshaping the priorities of buyers and sellers. These transformations go beyond the numbers: they reflect the cumulative impacts of the crisis that began in 2022 and economic uncertainties. Through their 2024 Real Estate Report, the Notaries of France shed light on these contrasting developments. Their analysis goes beyond mere observation. It explores short-term perspectives and opens pathways for a potential recovery in 2025. These projections illuminate immediate challenges, as well as the necessary adaptations to face a market in full transformation.

The real estate market is at the center of concerns in 2025, attracting attention from investors as much as from first-time buyers and economists. This evolution of mortgage rates, a true indicator of economic and financial health, plays a decisive role in this dynamic. Between 2023 and 2024, rates saw a significant decrease. Thus, they dropped from 4.5% to 3.23%, a change that illustrates both the effects of the European Central Bank’s flexible monetary policies and the banks' strategy to stimulate access to property ownership. This decline is not just a simple statistic. It has already increased the borrowing capacity of thousands of households, creating an unprecedented opportunity to revive an already fragile market. In a context marked by increased competition among financial institutions, this trend could intensify in 2025, potentially ushering in a new phase of growth for real estate.

China is at a pivotal economic turning point. As the combined effects of weak consumption, an intensified real estate crisis, and high unemployment hinder its development, Beijing has just announced an ambitious budget policy for 2025. The stated objective is clear: to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize an economy under significant pressure. To achieve these ambitions, the government plans a significant increase in public spending, coupled with a revision of its fiscal priorities. These measures, detailed during a national conference, reflect a firm commitment to support local communities, expand social benefits, and strengthen resources for struggling businesses. Such a strategy, centered around innovation and strategic technologies, also aims to revitalize trade exchanges in order to adapt debt rules. With this comprehensive approach, Beijing intends to lay the groundwork for more resilient economic growth and to address the structural challenges that hinder its trajectory.