The deficit is growing, taxes are rising, but Bayrou persists. Clinging to his 49.3 like a castaway to his buoy, he defies the political storm that is looming.
The French economy ends the year 2024 on a worrying note with a contraction of 0.1% of its GDP in the fourth quarter. This situation arises in a particularly tense context, where the public deficit reaches the alarming level of 6% of GDP, placing France among the worst performers in the eurozone.
Rents in France continue to rise in 2025, putting pressure on household budgets in a rapidly transforming real estate market. With an average cost of 723 euros per month including charges, the increase reaches 3.3% compared to 2024. This phenomenon, which spans the entire territory, reveals significant disparities between major metropolitan areas and more affordable cities. While some regions experience a surge in prices, others remain more accessible. What are the factors behind this rental inflation and which cities are the most affected?
After Texas, Russia is also turning to the Bitcoin industry to balance its electrical grid and reduce costs. When will France wake up? And Germany?
The employment situation in France is experiencing a worrying deterioration. According to the latest figures published on January 27, 2025, by the Ministry of Labor, the number of unemployed job seekers without activity (category A) surged by 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. This represents an additional 117,000 unemployed individuals, bringing the total to 3.1 million people, a level not seen in a decade, excluding the Covid-19 period.
For several decades, French budget management has been a source of recurring tensions, but the current situation has reached an unprecedented level. In 2025, the censorship of the budget voted by the Senate plunged the country into a major financial crisis, with losses estimated at 100 million euros per day. In the absence of a new text validated by the National Assembly, the budget for 2024 remains in effect, depriving the state of essential revenue and savings measures. Amélie de Montchalin, Minister for Public Accounts, warns about the repercussions of this deadlock and emphasizes both its economic cost and the institutional challenges it reveals.
The global crypto industry, already under pressure from increasingly strict regulations, is once again shaken. Indeed, French authorities have just opened a judicial investigation targeting Binance, the world leader in crypto exchange platforms. This procedure, which is based on serious accusations such as money laundering, tax fraud, and drug trafficking, highlights the growing tensions between regulators and players in a sector still seeking clear legal frameworks. While Binance denies these allegations, this case could tarnish the platform's image, but also redefine the rules of the game for the entire industry.
The dream of owning a detached house with a garden, shared by nearly 80% of the French according to a recent study, could soon become unattainable. The reason is a reform introduced by the Climate Resilience Law which aims to reduce land artificialization to preserve natural, agricultural, and forested areas. By 2050, this measure aims to achieve "net zero artificialization," which radically changes urban planning rules. This project, although ecological, is already causing a surge in the price of buildable land and limiting its availability, raising concerns among future homeowners and real estate professionals.
The mortgage credit market is undergoing a major shift at the beginning of 2025. After a rapid increase between 2022 and 2023, interest rates have been continuously declining for more than a year, with the hope that they will fall below the symbolic threshold of 3% in the coming months. This evolution, driven by the slowdown in inflation and the accommodative monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), is attracting the attention of households and investors. However, these promising figures are set against a fragile economic context, characterized by low growth and rising financial uncertainties. It therefore becomes crucial to understand the underlying issues and their implications for the future.
In 2024, regulated savings accounts in France, the Livret A and the Livret de Développement Durable et Solidaire (LDDS), reported a record amount of 16.8 billion euros in interest for savers. This impressive sum was announced by the Caisse des Dépôts, highlighting the ongoing appeal of these savings products despite an uncertain economic context.
Bayrou, an anxious prophet, portrays a Europe that watches a conquering dollar and a martial Trump, crushing our dreams of independence. The time for denial is over: it's time for a resurgence.
From January 31 to February 2, 2025, Alephium, a next-generation blockchain, will participate in CryptoXR, the second largest crypto conference in France, to organize a large-scale hackathon in partnership with LSW3 (League for Web3 Security). This event promises to make Auxerre the French capital of Web3, attracting over 3,000 visitors, 70 speakers, and innovative projects.
Michael Saylor, the visionary co-founder of MicroStrategy, sees considerable potential for Bitcoin adoption in France. This statement follows a meeting with Sarah Knafo, a Member of the European Parliament, during a lunch where they discussed the future of cryptocurrencies and energy.
According to economic projections and analysis by international experts, no European economy will be among the top ten world powers by 2050.
For the past two years, the French real estate market has been undergoing a deep crisis, fueled by soaring prices and difficulties in accessing credit. In response to this critical situation, François Bayrou, the Prime Minister, presented a set of measures aimed at revitalizing this vital sector for the national economy. Focused on tax incentives, increased support for construction, and regulatory adjustments, these proposals seek to address current challenges while considering social and environmental issues. While these initiatives spark hope for a rebound, they also raise many questions about their effectiveness and implementation.
The concept of wealth is complex to grasp, as it varies according to social, economic, and cultural contexts. Nevertheless, it generates constant interest in public debates. At what amount can one be considered wealthy? A recent study, based on data from the Bank of France and the criteria of the Observatory of Inequalities, provides a precise insight. It sets this threshold at 555,000 euros in net assets, far removed from the images of extreme luxury often associated with wealth. In fact, this figure, which concerns about 20% of French households, raises essential questions about wealth distribution and social inequalities. How does this definition influence our perception of wealth? And what are its implications for public policies and social justice?
David Lisnard, Mayor of Cannes, announced an ambitious initiative aimed at encouraging and training local merchants in the integration of cryptocurrencies for payments. This initiative is part of the city's Web3 strategy, which aims to modernize and invigorate the local economy. However, this initiative does not seem to please everyone and is receiving strong criticism.
The French rental market is going through an exceptionally severe crisis, threatening access to housing for many households. Despite a slight recovery in the real estate sector, rentals remain under intense pressure, with a plummeting supply and prices that continue to rise. According to the National Federation of Real Estate (Fnaim), structural problems and poorly adjusted regulatory choices are exacerbating this situation. With the rise of short-term rental platforms and new constraints related to energy renovation, challenges are piling up, highlighting the urgency to act. This crisis, beyond the numbers, involves major social and economic issues for both tenants and investors.
Under the darkened skies of the budget, the Medef proposes a sharp reform: to withdraw retirees' valuable tax allowance. An idea where the economy dialogues with injustice.
The housing credit market in France is undergoing a significant shift. After a period marked by high interest rates, which hindered access to property ownership, the trend is reversing. François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France, announced that mortgage rates fell below 3.4% in November 2024, down from 4% in January. This drop is attributed to a slowdown in inflation, which is expected to reach 1.5% in 2025, after having weighed on the economy in recent years. This development is a relief for borrowers, but its implications go beyond the real estate sector. A relaxation of credit costs generally promotes economic recovery, restoring purchasing power to households and encouraging investment. This dynamic could also impact other asset classes, particularly cryptocurrencies. A more stable economy and smoother access to financing prompt some investors to reassess their strategies. With this drop in rates and the anticipation of possible monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB), the real estate market could regain a more favorable dynamic.
When a country imports more than it exports, its economy weakens and its dependence on external markets increases. In November 2024, France's trade deficit stood at 7.3 billion euros, which represents an improvement of 0.3 billion euros compared to the previous month. This slight reduction in the deficit is primarily explained by an increase in energy exports, which grew faster than imports. However, this improvement does not call into question the structural fragility of French foreign trade. Despite this temporary improvement, the imbalance between exports and imports remains critical. The domestic industry struggles to compete with international competition, and the trade balance remains largely in deficit. This situation raises questions about the competitiveness of French companies and their ability to sustainably establish themselves in foreign markets. Thus, the evolution of the deficit in the coming months will largely depend on the energy situation and the economic policies implemented to rectify the trade balance.
After two years of noticeable decline, the real estate market appears to have reached a turning point. According to Charles Marinakis, president of Century 21 France, the correction in prices is nearing its end, paving the way for stabilization, or even a slight rebound in 2025. In Paris, the price per square meter has dropped by nearly 10% over two years, a similar decline observed throughout Île-de-France. This correction, exacerbated by rising interest rates, has allowed sales to gradually restart. However, the market's evolution will depend on several factors, including the continued decrease in credit rates and the ability of sellers to adjust their prices to match the new expectations of buyers.
The French state is preparing to face a year of high tension in the financial markets. With 300 billion euros to borrow in 2025, an unprecedented level of debt, Bercy must maneuver in a particularly unstable environment. The French Treasury Agency (AFT), responsible for debt issuance, faces a double challenge: ensuring the financing of the country without destabilizing the markets and reassuring increasingly cautious investors. Indeed, political uncertainty further complicates the situation. Since the fall of the Barnier government, France has been operating without an approved budget, which strengthens doubts about the country’s budgetary trajectory. A special law adopted in emergency allows for the maintenance of borrowing, but this temporary solution is not enough to dispel the concerns. In the markets, signs of instability are multiplying. The spread between French and German rates, a key indicator of investor confidence, has doubled in a year to exceed 80 basis points. This signal reflects a riskier perception of French debt and could increase the cost of financing. In this climate of uncertainty, Bercy must find the right balance. Will the AFT’s strategy, based on predictability, regularity, and flexibility, be enough to avoid an excessive rise in interest rates? With only a few days until the first auctions, pressure is mounting on financial officials, while investors are waiting for guarantees on the country’s budgetary stability.
Since January 1, 2025, the French real estate sector is entering a new era. The changes go beyond a simple revision of previous rules. They reflect a political will to strengthen ecological requirements and adapt the tax framework to an uncertain economic context. The ban on renting energy-rated G housing, for example, embodies this priority given to the energy transition. At the same time, major fiscal upheavals, such as the end of the Pinel scheme or the postponement of the Zero-Rate Loan, are redefining incentives for investors and households. Finally, the continuation of the "anti-Airbnb law" and the stability of notary fees complete this picture of reforms, where each measure shapes the delicate balance between the expectations of property owners, the needs of tenants, and environmental imperatives. These adjustments, far from being anecdotal, herald a profound transformation of the real estate market.
The year 2024 marks a major shift for the French real estate market. Indeed, the dynamics that have structured this sector for decades are gradually fading, giving way to profound changes. The massive decline in transactions, the hesitant restart of real estate purchasing power, and the growing importance of energy criteria are reshaping the priorities of buyers and sellers. These transformations go beyond the numbers: they reflect the cumulative impacts of the crisis that began in 2022 and economic uncertainties. Through their 2024 Real Estate Report, the Notaries of France shed light on these contrasting developments. Their analysis goes beyond mere observation. It explores short-term perspectives and opens pathways for a potential recovery in 2025. These projections illuminate immediate challenges, as well as the necessary adaptations to face a market in full transformation.
On the chessboard of cryptocurrencies, AI is the king of scammers, ruining the French in a game where only fraudsters win.
In a global economic context marked by successive upheavals, few sectors manage to maintain enduring stability. Long perceived as an unsinkable fortress, luxury, the quintessential symbol of prosperity and exclusivity, also faltered in 2024. Indeed, the fortunes of emblematic figures such as Bernard Arnault, Françoise Bettencourt Meyers, and François Pinault suffered colossal losses amounting to over 70 billion dollars combined. Such a decline finds its origins in a set of closely related factors: a slowing Chinese economy, national political tensions, and increased volatility in stock markets. These combined elements have shaken the pillars of the sector, revealing an unexpected fragility.
The real estate market is at the center of concerns in 2025, attracting attention from investors as much as from first-time buyers and economists. This evolution of mortgage rates, a true indicator of economic and financial health, plays a decisive role in this dynamic. Between 2023 and 2024, rates saw a significant decrease. Thus, they dropped from 4.5% to 3.23%, a change that illustrates both the effects of the European Central Bank’s flexible monetary policies and the banks' strategy to stimulate access to property ownership. This decline is not just a simple statistic. It has already increased the borrowing capacity of thousands of households, creating an unprecedented opportunity to revive an already fragile market. In a context marked by increased competition among financial institutions, this trend could intensify in 2025, potentially ushering in a new phase of growth for real estate.
"Great news awaits holders of a Livret d'Épargne Populaire (LEP). Starting December 31, 2024, more than 2.5 million French citizens will benefit from the annual payment of interest. Discover the details and the impact of this measure on their purchasing power."
While most European bond markets show relative stability, the situation in France raises serious concerns. The yields on 10-year government bonds have reached 3.05%, an exceptionally high level for a major eurozone economy. This dynamic reflects a combination of economic tensions and political dysfunction, which reinforces doubts about the country's budgetary management. With public debt exceeding 112% of GDP and a deficit stagnating above 6%, France stands out as a worrying case within the European Union. These developments signal a loss of investor confidence but also highlight the urgency for structural reforms to prevent an even more marked deterioration of its position in financial markets.