Syria Has Just Fallen And That Changes Everything

The Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad is on the verge of collapse after 13 years of civil war. This spectacular acceleration of history could redraw regional balances.

A devastating offensive in Syria

The collapse of government forces has occurred at a stunning pace. The capture of Hama by the forces of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led by Mohamed al-Julani has opened a major breach.

This advance directly threatens the vital link between Damascus and the coastal governorates of Tartous and Latakia, where the strategic Russian bases of Hmeimim and Tartous are positioned.

The government’s defenses seem to collapse like a house of cards, unable to mount significant resistance. The capture of the suburbs of Damascus is particularly telling: this area, traditionally ultra-defended by the Syrian army, has been abandoned without significant combat.

The east of the country is already lost for the regime, with the emblematic fall of Palmyra. The Druze rebels from the South are at the gates of Damascus, creating a pincer situation for the Syrian capital.

Damascus has just fallen: the end of Al Assad’s regime is confirmed.

Allies have abandoned Bashar’s Syria

The Assad regime finds itself in unprecedented isolation. The Russians, a historical pillar of Assad’s retention of power since 2015, seem to have made the choice to disengage. Their forces are repatriating their equipment to Tartous, without it being known whether this is a tactical retreat or a definitive evacuation.

Iran, another major supporter of the regime, shines by its absence. Rather than strengthening its presence, Tehran seems to be evacuating its nationals and officers. The Iraqi Shiite militias, traditionally at the forefront of pro-Assad interventions, have turned back, possibly under the pressure of American strikes.

Only Hezbollah is said to have sent about 2000 fighters to Homs, a force manifestly insufficient against the surge of HTS forces.

This weakness in the response of the regime’s traditional allies raises the question: is it a material inability to intervene or a concerted strategic choice?

Al-Julani: the emergence of a new leader in Syria?

Mohamed al-Julani appears as the central figure in this recomposition of the Syrian landscape. His background is particularly interesting: formerly close to the Islamic State, he has undergone a significant ideological evolution.

Over the past five years, he has focused on making the Idlib governorate a showcase for his governance capabilities, seeking to present a more moderate image.

His current diplomatic strategy is remarkable: he multiplies signs of moderation, promising to protect minorities and not to attack Russian interests.

Even Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, has mentioned HTS forces without labeling them terrorists, signaling a possible international acceptance of Julani as a future Syrian leader.

A geopolitical upheaval

For Russia, the potential loss of the bases in Tartous and Latakia would represent a severe blow. These installations are crucial for the projection of Russian power towards Africa. Their loss would significantly reduce Russia’s capacity for influence in the region.

Israel’s position becomes particularly delicate. The potential emergence of a hostile power at its borders, claiming the Golan, could push Tel Aviv to extend its buffer zone, particularly relying on Druze forces.

Lebanon could become the next point of friction. The severing of the land link between Iran and Hezbollah, already compromised by Israeli actions in the Bekaa Valley, would become definitive with a hostile power in Damascus. This could hasten Julani’s intervention in Lebanon, under the guise of “liberation.”

Iran: the big loser?

The apparent paralysis of Iran in the face of the collapse of its Syrian ally could reveal a deeper weakness. Years of international sanctions, repeated Israeli strikes in Syria, and the wear of the Revolutionary Guard forces seem to have significantly eroded Tehran’s projection capacity.

This situation recalls, in some ways, the Soviet paralysis of 1989 in the face of the collapse of its Eastern European satellites. The inability or refusal to intervene to save a historic ally could herald deeper upheavals within the Iranian regime itself.

Towards a reconfiguration of the Middle East

The speed of the Syrian collapse could have a domino effect on the entire region. The Syrian Kurdistan is in a precarious position, caught between Turkish ambitions and the rise of HTS. Erdogan’s Turkey might seek to extend its influence, particularly towards the strategic city of Manbij.

Iraq could become the next theater of confrontation. The Sunni part of the country, historically resistant to Baghdad’s power, could be tempted to approach a strengthened Sunni Syrian power. This perspective particularly worries Iran, which would see its regional influence further compromised.

This major reconfiguration of the Middle East occurs in a broader context of shifting global balances. The apparent weakness of traditionally dominant powers in the region (Russia, Iran) could open the way for new forms of influence and power.

The fall of the Assad regime thus marks the end of an era in the Middle East. The coming weeks and months will tell us whether this transformation leads to regional stabilization or, conversely, to new cycles of violence.