Stock Market: The Euro Regains The Upper Hand Over The Dollar In 2024!

The year 2024 will be marked by a surprising dynamic on the stock market: the euro, after having faced a difficult first half of the year, has bounced back against the US dollar. This turnaround surprised many analysts who, a few months ago, saw the euro sinking further.

An unexpected rebound of the euro

The beginning of 2024 was not kind to the euro. Facing a strengthened dollar due to restrictive monetary policy by the Fed, the European currency lost up to 3% of its value in the first six months of the year.

This situation was largely explained by the economic slowdown within the eurozone and the decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower its key rates starting in June, in an attempt to support the economy. 

In theory, lower rates reduce the attractiveness of a currency because they encourage investors to seek returns elsewhere.

However, the situation began to change in July. While the euro traded on the stock market below $1.07 at the end of June, it quickly regained strength to reach $1.11 in a few weeks.

This rebound was mainly due to a bout of weakness in the dollar, itself caused by disappointing US economic statistics.

Among these, the July jobs report was particularly poorly received, causing panic in the markets and increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts.

Rate cut expectations: A driver for the euro

The rebound of the euro against the dollar has its roots in the expectations of rate cuts in the United States.

Since the beginning of August, investors have been anticipating sharper than expected reductions in US key rates, which weighs on the dollar.

According to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, the market now expects a 100 basis point cut by the end of the year, whereas in July, expectations were only for 50 basis points.

This prospect has strengthened the euro because a decrease in US interest rates reduces the yield gap between the dollar and the euro, making the latter more attractive. 

Furthermore, the rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the end of July triggered a massive unwinding of carry trade positions, where investors were selling dollars to buy higher-yielding currencies. This phenomenon contributed to the dollar’s decline and, by extension, the euro’s rise.

However, some analysts, like those at UBS, remain cautious. They estimate that the “fair value” of the eurodollar is around 1.095, suggesting that the euro could be overvalued in the short term. 

The upcoming speech by Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, could also influence market expectations depending on its tone, which might be less accommodative than expected.

What are the prospects for the future?

The question now is whether the euro can continue its ascent against the dollar. 

According to Bank of America, the euro could reach $1.12 on the stock market by the end of the year, a slight increase from its current level.

However, UBS warns that the euro may have exceeded its economic fundamentals, suggesting that the European currency could retreat if the US economy shows stronger-than-expected signs of recovery.

Beyond monetary aspects, other factors could also influence the eurodollar pair. The carry trade could continue to play an important role, depending on central bank decisions and movements in emerging markets. Additionally, geopolitical and economic developments, both in Europe and the United States, will remain key variables to watch.