Post-Halving Bitcoin Surge: A Shattered Dream?

If you’ve looked at the bitcoin charts this May 1st, you may have noticed that the cryptocurrency’s price dropped to less than $57,000. Even though the crypto is currently trading at just over $59,000, its decline continues to surprise many. How can we understand that its value collapsed after the halving when we were expecting the opposite trend?

The bitcoin halving in 2024 is not like the previous ones

For those with a good memory, 17 months after the 2016 halving, bitcoin saw its price increase by 3000%. Its value had reached the $20,000 mark in December 2017. Bitcoin’s price history has taught us to expect a bitcoin rally after each halving.

However, it must be recognized that certain elements distinguish the 2024 halving from the previous ones. For instance, a few weeks before the halving, bitcoin experienced a bullish cycle that led its price towards a historic peak, a trend that had never been observed since the creation of bitcoin in 2009.

The founder of Quantum Economics, Mati Greenspan, attributes the collapse of bitcoin to two main factors. He cites “the ongoing events in bear markets” and the economic conditions affected by “the Fed’s reversal”. While he recalls that bitcoin has increased by 35% compared to its price at the beginning of the year, Mati states that the current trend is not surprising.

Who can guess #bitcoin halving price? HAVE A GO at it! then when halving happens we’ll check back this post to see how many of you got it right ! 😎😎😎👇 pic.twitter.com/Ev7AyYG4Lm

— Random Crypto Pal (@RandomCryptoPal) May 2, 2024

“The collapse of bitcoin is not surprising”

Like Mati Greenspan, analysts at JPMorgan are also not surprised by the collapse of bitcoin. They had predicted in March 2024 that the crypto’s price could drop to $42,000 after the halving. They even stated that one should not expect a post-halving BTC rally.

For them, by reaching a peak before the event, the crypto price had already factored in the halving before it occurred. The CEO and lead analyst of 10x Research, Markus Thielen, in turn, is betting on a post-halving floor of $52,000, based on the BTC ETF theory.

Nevertheless, many other investors predict new highs for bitcoin. Lyn Alden believes that the cryptocurrency could reach new heights in 2024. Tim Draper, meanwhile, reiterates his previous prediction that BTC could soon hit $250,000. Clearly, we can continue to hope for a post-halving BTC rally.