PlanB’s Bitcoin Forecast : $500,000 In Sight ?

Bitcoin is reaching new heights and is now flirting with the $79,000 mark, a feat largely driven by the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections. In a context of high volatility, where institutional players and analysts sharpen their projections, the famous stock-to-flow model from analyst PlanB now predicts a potential surge in Bitcoin’s price up to $500,000 by the next four-year cycle. This resurgence of institutional interest, supported by favorable political initiatives, promises to shake up the crypto market.

The Trump Effect and the Foundations of Bitcoin’s Rise

Bitcoin experienced a significant rise following the re-election of Donald Trump and reached $79,000 according to market data on November 10, 2024. Such a surge is directly linked to the enthusiasm generated by the new U.S. administration’s stated intentions, particularly the idea of creating a national reserve in Bitcoin. Analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow model that projects the value of Bitcoin based on its scarcity and halving cycles, stated: “if history repeats itself and the stock-to-flow model continues to guide, we will witness a skyrocketing price.” These remarks resonate with investor expectations, anticipating an institutional influx into the BTC market.

The proposal for a national reserve, already supported by influential voices like pro-Bitcoin Senator Cynthia Lummis, could increase institutional buying pressure by 200,000 BTC per year. With the integration of Bitcoin into national reserves, the United States could establish a new standard for digital value reserves, akin to gold reserves, spurred by unprecedented demand supported by official legitimacy for the world’s most capitalized cryptocurrency.

The Institutional Enthusiasm and PlanB’s Forecasts

Beyond the direct impact of political announcements, analyst PlanB has highlighted the growth prospects for Bitcoin beyond short-term speculation. He predicts an upward trajectory for BTC up to $500,000 in the next cycle. Using the stock-to-flow model, which measures Bitcoin’s value through its scarcity and the effects of halvings, PlanB estimates a potential price range between $250,000 and $1,000,000 per unit. “The stock-to-flow is just a compass, but it has proven effective in the past,” he explained. Furthermore, he emphasized that large investors like MicroStrategy continue to bolster their BTC portfolios.

The entry of companies like MicroStrategy, which plans to acquire 200,000 BTC annually, could serve as a catalyst for the price increase, through a constant influx of institutional capital. However, this movement also attracts criticism and concerns. Thus, some observers warn against the effects of excessive speculation and the risks of “spoofing” on order books, a practice aimed at artificially manipulating prices by adding and removing large orders. This technique, although unregulated in crypto markets, could limit expected gains and create artificial price fluctuations.

The rise of Bitcoin to $79,000 and PlanB’s ambitions, supported by a favorable political context, illustrate a decisive phase for BTC. If the establishment of a national reserve in Bitcoin in the United States were to materialize, it could redefine the foundations of the global digital economy. However, the risks of market manipulation and the lack of regulation remain significant challenges.