One-Quarter Of Top Cryptos Hit Yearly Lows : What’s Next ?

The volatility of the crypto market is not unusual, but the recent downward trends are raising eyebrows among analysts. Nearly a quarter of the top 200 cryptocurrencies have hit their lowest point in a year, a phenomenon that, according to some experts, could signal an imminent market capitulation. This situation, marked by cascading liquidations and panic movements, raises questions about the direction the market will take in the coming weeks.

A pressured market : signs of a possible capitulation

The recent drop in cryptocurrencies accelerated after February 7, when a wave of liquidations caused a widespread price retreat. Jamie Coutts, an analyst at Real Vision, revealed that 24 % of the top 200 cryptocurrencies reached a low over 365 days, a critical threshold reminiscent of the August 2024 correction, when this figure peaked at 28 %. “In a bear market, readings beyond 30 % are common before a capitulation. The question is: are we in a bull or bear market?” questions the expert in a post on the social network X (formerly Twitter) on February 19, 2025.

This phenomenon is accompanied by a decline in the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, which has fallen to $3.13 trillion. Juan Pellicer, an analyst at IntoTheBlock, refers to a “cleaning of over-leveraged positions,” in reference to the liquidations observed in cryptocurrencies like Solana, which are particularly exposed to excessive leverage effects. This market purge could, according to him, mark a bottom before a potential rebound, provided that macroeconomic signals align positively.

Temporary correction or paradigm shift ?

While the drop in prices has rekindled fears of a capitulation, some observers downplay the situation and refer to it as a mere retracement within an still bullish market. Pellicer believes that trade tensions between the United States and China, as well as rising valuations related to artificial intelligence, significantly influence investor sentiment. He suggests that these factors could maintain a positive long-term dynamic, despite the current turbulence.

Another factor obscures the outlook: the rise of memecoins. Edwin Mata, CEO of Brickken, warns about the liquidity fragmentation effect caused by these ultra-speculative tokens, often promoted by influential figures in the sector. “The rise of memecoins has diverted some capital from established projects, making the market recovery scheme less predictable,” he explains. This influx of speculation exacerbates volatility and complicates the identification of a reliable market floor.

If the current trend seems to mark a turning point for the crypto market, it is still too early to talk about a definitive capitulation. The evolution of capital flows, the behavior of institutional investors, and macroeconomic data will be decisive in the coming weeks. The question remains: is this correction a buying opportunity, or a sign of a prolonged bear phase?