Oil At $113.7 Puts Fresh Pressure On Bitcoin

This Sunday evening, bitcoin fell nearly 2 % at the very moment when oil jumped by about 20 %, driven by fears of shortages due to the escalation in the Middle East. This sudden divergence reveals a deeper shift. Faced with energy risk, the speculative narrative fades, and BTC becomes an asset exposed to geopolitical shocks again.

The oil shock trips up bitcoin

Within minutes, the market flipped. At the opening of American futures contracts, the oil surge took precedence in arbitrage, amid escalating tensions about global supply.

Indeed, crude went from $95 to $113.7 per barrel, while Iraq mentioned a disruption risk of about 3 million barrels per day due to Iranian threats to tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

In the same move, bitcoin lost ground. The asset went from $66,960 to $65,725 around 10:30 PM UTC, before rebounding to $67,560 currently. Donald Trump responded to this crude spike, assuring prices “will drop very quickly”, while rejecting the idea of an immediate use of the strategic reserve, with this other phrase: “we have plenty of oil”.

• Oil jumped from $95 to $113.7 per barrel at the opening of US futures ;
• Iraq mentioned a disruption risk of about 3 million barrels per day ;
• Bitcoin fell from $66,960 to $65,725 in fifteen minutes.

From an asset driven by war to an asset driven by risk aversion

Bitcoin initially rose during the previous phase of the conflict, climbing from less than $64,000 to $73,770 on Wednesday, in a context marked by the death of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. However, the market did not react linearly to the war. It first drove BTC up, before punishing it when oil became the dominant variable.

Since that peak, bitcoin has undergone four consecutive sessions of decline, while oil has gained over 30 % for the week and reached its highest level since April 2022. This divergence between the trajectory of crude and BTC sheds light on market mindset. In a crisis where energy becomes the critical point again, operators seem to first reassess supply risk before reevaluating the thesis of a bitcoin capable of absorbing geopolitical shocks alone.

Bitcoin gave way at the exact moment oil regained control of the market. In this climate of energy and geopolitical tension, extreme fear grips the crypto market again. The coming days will show whether this is a simple panic or the start of a more lasting investor withdrawal.