XRP Faces Potential 75–90% Crash — Are the Signs Pointing to Disaster?

The price of XRP intrigues, worries, and brings back bad memories. While some see the beginnings of a new rise, a recent analysis indicates familiar patterns, the same ones that preceded the crashes of 2018 and 2021. As technical signals turn orange, the threat of a denial scenario (a key step before each past crash) resurfaces. In a climate filled with expectations, on-chain data imposes a serious reminder of reality.

Worrying denial signals in on-chain data

The XRP has lost more than 40% of its value since its peak of $3.40 reached in January 2025. Indeed, on-chain indicators are now alerting to a potential repeat of the worst bearish episodes in its recent history.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), published by the analysis platform Glassnode, again places the market in the so-called “denial” psychological zone, a stage historically identified as a precursor signal of strong corrections.

Thus, the XRP NUPL has once again entered the “denial” zone, as the price is currently trading around $2.26 after a strong rally. This same indicator had preceded a drop of 90% in 2018, and then a decrease of 75% in 2021, in contexts where investor euphoria had quickly turned into capitulation.

Such an alert comes in a climate where XRP had experienced a spectacular rise. Within two months, the crypto had recorded a rally of +585%, supported by several fundamental catalysts. Among the elements that fueled this excessive optimism, we can cite:

• The election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, interpreted as a favorable signal for the crypto industry.
• Speculations surrounding a favorable settlement of the Ripple vs. SEC case, a legal battle closely followed for over three years.
• Rumors of the approval of a spot XRP ETF in 2025, which have maintained the idea of imminent institutional adoption.

These elements have fostered a market sentiment close to euphoria, then to denial, phases identified as typical of cycle peaks. Historically, these configurations have served as a prelude to the most violent reversals of the XRP price.

Ambitious but Controversial Projections

Despite these warnings, some analysts continue to envision an explosive rise for XRP. An algorithmic prediction model suggests a trajectory leading to $27 within a 63-day timeframe.

This estimate is based on fractal patterns identified in previous cycles, but raises doubts within the crypto community. The same model has previously experienced significant discrepancies between forecasts and market realities. At this stage, no consensus is apparent.

Conversely, the current technical analysis indicates a possible break in the bullish trend if XRP falls below certain critical levels. A further drop of 40% could then occur, intensified by panic sentiment and leverage effects.

This dual dynamic (between hopes for exponential growth and threats of brutal correction) underscores the extreme polarization of the market. For investors, reading the market becomes increasingly complex as contradictory signals coexist and almost cancel each other out.

While the past guarantees nothing, the repetitive behavior patterns of XRP deserve to be taken seriously. A break below current supports could catalyze a return to a zone of high volatility, undermining even the most optimistic bullish expectations. It remains to be seen whether the resilience of bullish investors will be enough to avoid a scenario already well-known to the market.