Is The Rise Of Bitcoin Back? Technical Analysis Of December 3, 2024

Bitcoin starts a rebound after experiencing a slight decline. Let’s now examine the evolving prospects for BTC.

Situation of the Bitcoin (BTC) Price

After setting a new ATH of 99,661, Bitcoin faced selling pressure leading to a drop of over 8 %. The BTC thus reached 90,800, a level that has become support triggering strong buying interest so far. It is interesting to observe that this aligns with a notable value area. This buying interest later contributed to forming a bullish engulfing pattern (on the daily period), a figure conducive to a bullish reversal. Currently, the cryptocurrency is in a consolidation phase in the form of a range, between 98,700 and 94,800.

At the time of writing this text, the Bitcoin price is trading around $95,200. Although the short-term trend of BTC is not clearly bullish, the medium and long-term structure remains distinctly positive. This observation is reinforced by the positioning of the moving averages over 50 and 200 days, which remain oriented and crossed upwards. Unsurprisingly, the bullish momentum of the cryptocurrency is showing signs of fatigue. While this may seem concerning, it is important to remember that Bitcoin has recently benefitted from strong bullish volatility. This is often indicative of a pause, or even a correction to come, while remaining a healthy evolution.

The current technical analysis was done in collaboration with Elie FT, an investor and passionate trader in the cryptocurrency market. Currently a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content, and support around financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTC/USDT)

The open interest of perpetual BTC/USDT contracts has evolved in phase with the price of its underlying asset. However, a stagnation in Open Interest has recently been observed, signaling a lack of new capital inflow and the notable closure of speculative positions. On the CVD side, it continues to decline, suggesting a selling interest on the latest orders placed on the market. Taking into account the funding rate, a bullish conviction is emerging, although it remains moderate. Finally, regarding liquidations, they remain low, indicating a balanced market where buyers and sellers accept the current direction of the crypto.

The liquidation heatmap of the perpetual BTC/USDT contracts shows that Bitcoin rebounded at the contact of the liquidation zone located around $91,000. A buying interest seems to have supported the price, allowing Bitcoin to continue its rise. Although this may be reassuring, it is important to note that this former zone has not been clearly cleared, extending down to $85,000. Below, a subtle area around $80,000 is also identifiable, followed by a more marked area between $74,000 and $75,000. Above the current price, the area around $100,000 constitutes a major point of interest. If the price approaches these levels, it could trigger a large number of orders, thereby increasing the risk of volatility for the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent crucial points of interest for investors.

Forecast for the Bitcoin (BTC) Price

• If the Bitcoin price manages to stay above $90,800, a break of the resistance at $98,400 could occur. In this case, the continuation of the bullish movement could allow reaching the BTC ATH, identified around $99,600. Crossing this last level would pave the way to $100,000, or even up to the first pivot resistance, located at $108,477. This would represent a progression of about 13 %.

It is important to note that reaching a historical high makes it more difficult to identify resistance levels.

• If Bitcoin fails to stay above $90,800, it could find support around $87,000. A prolonged decline could then lead to support at $85,000. Finally, in case of a more marked correction, the area around $81,500 would constitute a key support, whose breach could lead to a decline of about 15 %.

Conclusion

After a strong rise, Bitcoin has experienced a consolidation phase, accompanied by signs of fatigue in its momentum. Despite an uncertain short-term trend, the overall structure remains positive, marking a healthy pause after a period of significant volatility. It is now crucial to closely monitor the price reactions at key levels to validate or adjust the current forecasts. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based only on technical criteria, and the price of cryptocurrencies can evolve rapidly depending on other more fundamental factors.