Is Bitcoin’s Correction The Start Of A Bear Market ?

Bitcoin plunged to $76,700, marking its lowest level in four months amid global economic turmoil. Indeed, the 30 % drop from its historic high of $109,350 has rekindled debates about a possible trend reversal, as some observers question the sustainability of the bull cycle. However, several indicators suggest that this correction could represent a strategic entry point for investors. On one hand, financial markets remain under pressure with persistent economic uncertainties, while on the other, the BTC derivatives market shows unexpected strength. So, has bitcoin hit its ultimate floor before a rebound?

Technical Signals Favor Market Stabilization

The tremors in the crypto market are not an unprecedented phenomenon, but this 30 % correction piques the interest of analysts. Compared to the brutal drop of November 2021, where BTC lost 41 % in 60 days, the current dynamics appear less pronounced. However, some believe that to truly enter a bearish phase, bitcoin would need to show a loss of 40% or more.

Historically, a 30% correction is not enough to classify a bear market. The parallel with 2021 is misleading, as at that time, the US dollar was strongly appreciating against a basket of currencies. However, in 2025, the trend is reversed: the dollar index (DXY) has fallen from 109.2 to 104, which has reinforced the thesis that investors remain positioned in risk assets.

From a technical standpoint, the BTC derivatives market exhibits curious stability. The annualized premium on bitcoin futures remains at 4.5 %, even after a 19 % plunge in price between March 2 and March 11. By comparison, during the debacle of June 2022, this premium fell below 0 %, illustrating widespread panic. The fact that perpetual contract funding remains neutral and suggests a balance between buyers and sellers could be a warning sign of a market reversal.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainties and the Potential Influx of Capital

Beyond technical indicators, the macroeconomic context could play in favor of a bitcoin rebound. A key element concerns fears of a US government shutdown. Discussions in Congress about the budget must reach a conclusion by March 15, and any failure to reach an agreement could affect traditional financial markets. Such a situation could paradoxically strengthen bitcoin, often seen as an alternative to sovereign currencies during political instability.

In parallel, another factor attracts attention: the US real estate market shows critical signs. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, the number of signed real estate contracts hit a historic low in January. Worse still, 7 % of FHA-backed mortgages exhibit over 90 days of delinquency, a level higher than during the 2008 subprime crisis. In light of these warning signals, some investors may choose to redirect their capital toward scarce and inflation-resistant assets, including bitcoin.

If these trends are confirmed, BTC could return to $90,000 faster than expected. The coming days will be crucial to assess whether this correction marks a true floor or if further tremors are to be anticipated. What is certain is that bitcoin continues to evolve in an environment where economic uncertainties play a central role in its valuation.