Is Bitcoin On Track For A New Bull Run In 2025 ?

The movements of Bitcoin rhythm the markets, between phases of euphoria and brutal corrections. After a record high of $108,268 in December 2024, the crypto is going through a period of consolidation. Yet, a major technical indicator, the 52-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), fuels speculation. According to analyst Dave the Wave, Bitcoin could reach a new peak by July 2025, a pattern already observed in previous bullish cycles. Thus, if this forecast is confirmed, it would mark a key milestone in the current cycle. However, the evolution of the market remains uncertain, between technical signals and external factors likely to influence price trajectories.

A technical indicator suggests an imminent peak

Since its record high of $108,268 reached on December 17, 2024, Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase. After a rapid ascent, the crypto lost 14 % from its peak, a pullback considered classic after a major surge. Despite this correction, several observers believe that the bullish cycle remains intact, as they rely on historical models to anticipate the market’s trajectory.

Among them, Dave the Wave emphasizes the importance of the 52-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) in detecting peaks. “Bitcoin has historically peaked when the one-year moving average touched the midpoint of the Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) channel,” he explained on platform X (formerly Twitter) on January 13, 2025. Moreover, past data seems to validate this approach: in 2013, the peak occurred on the exact day of the signal, in 2017, it appeared a month later, and in 2021, it was reached several months afterwards.

If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could reach its peak around July 2025, when the annual moving average is expected to cross the median of the LGC channel. However, some experts temper this projection. The Bitcoin market is now operating in a different context, marked by increasing institutional adoption and stricter regulations. These factors could alter traditional dynamics and call into question the reliability of historical models.

A correction underway : end of the pause or alert signal ?

Rekt Capital’s analysis offers a complementary perspective on the current market evolution. According to him, Bitcoin is undergoing a classic price discovery phase, generally observed between the sixth and eighth weeks after a significant surge. “Such a correction has lasted four weeks, suggesting that it is approaching its end,” he stated on X, on January 11, 2025. This view is shared by Axel Adler Jr., who highlights in a post on January 13 on social network X that the ongoing pullback is much less severe than the one that occurred between July and August 2024, when Bitcoin recorded a brutal drop of 26 % in one week.

However, this optimism is not unanimous. Peter Brandt warns of a potential “head and shoulders” formation on the daily chart, a well-known bearish pattern among technical analysts. If this configuration validates, Bitcoin could slide below $77,000, a level that could undermine the current bullish dynamic. “The market must confirm or invalidate this pattern, but investors should consider several scenarios,” he warned in an analysis published on January 12, 2025, on X. This uncertainty reinforces the idea that the situation remains fragile and that Bitcoin is at a pivotal point. A rebound could reignite the bullish trend, but a downward breach of critical thresholds could signal a change in cycle.

Investors are closely monitoring liquidity levels to anticipate Bitcoin’s next movements. Currently, massive buy orders are positioned between $85,000 and $92,000 on Binance. This suggests that this area could serve as key support in the event of a new decline. Conversely, a strong volume of sell orders is concentrated around $110,000, making it a potential target for a next rally. If technical analysis indicates a continuation of the bullish trend, several uncertainties remain. Market evolution could be influenced by macroeconomic factors, regulatory interventions, or more pronounced institutional adoption. For now, the one-year moving average and the logarithmic channel remain essential benchmarks. It remains to be seen whether 2025 will follow the patterns of previous cycles or mark an unprecedented change in the history of Bitcoin.