Fidelity's Timmer Sees Bitcoin Leading Gold Again

Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, continues to prefer bitcoin over gold despite the recent decline of both assets. His reasoning does not rely on their performance in dollars, but on BTC’s ability to gain ground against the yellow metal while maintaining a higher upside potential.

Against gold, bitcoin clearly regains the advantage

Bitcoin and gold both fell during the recent wave of risk aversion. A view limited to their dollar prices could thus conclude that neither properly fulfills its role as protection.

Timmer uses another indicator: the number of ounces of gold one bitcoin can buy. This ratio removes dollar fluctuations and directly measures the relative strength of the two assets. After a low near 12 ounces during the current cycle, one BTC now buys about 21 ounces.

Several factors support this tactical preference :

• Bitcoin has broken its recent consolidation zone against gold ;
• The BTC-gold ratio has risen about 75% since its cycle low ;
• Spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted nearly $55 billion since 2024 ;
• Gold and silver index products have received about $29 billion over the same period ;
• Bitcoin and gold have a correlation of 60 to 70% with the S&P 500.

“I still prefer bitcoin over gold for now”, states Timmer, pointing out that its relative price holds up even as both assets fall. He does not claim BTC escapes correction, but that it depreciates less than gold in their direct confrontation.

This ratio remains cyclical, however. Speculative capital has already flowed multiple times between the two assets since late 2025. A bitcoin advance versus gold indicates leadership taking, not permanent superiority.

ETFs tip the scale without eliminating risk

Cumulative flows into ETFs support Timmer’s analysis. Since their launch, U.S. bitcoin funds have received almost twice the capital of precious metal products over the compared period.

This difference suggests institutional investors now assign real allocation space to bitcoin. However, it does not guarantee these funds stay invested during stress phases. On November 5, bitcoin ETFs saw over $430 million withdrawals in a single session.

Bitcoin thus combines two profiles. It can be viewed as a rare asset in monetary depreciation, while reacting like a risky tech investment when Wall Street corrects. Timmer has described it as a “high-beta” version of gold: higher upside potential but also more violent swings.

This volatility explains why preferring BTC doesn’t always mean a better risk-return ratio in every scenario. Gold generally remains less volatile and benefits from structural demand from central banks, jewelry, and institutional investors.

Bitcoin offers programmable scarcity, global mobility, and easier access through ETFs. Its maximum supply of 21 million units can amplify price rises when demand grows, but also accentuate declines when investors seek liquidity.

Preferring bitcoin does not mean replacing gold

The current correlation with stocks is the main limitation of the scenario. Timmer acknowledges that bitcoin and gold recently “joined the risk aversion party”, with a 60 to 70% correlation against the S&P 500.

In the short term, neither works as a perfect hedge against market declines. This relationship may be temporary, but it reduces their diversification ability when investors need it most.

Timmer does not propose abandoning gold, however. In a hypothetical allocation presented in September, he explained moving from five units of gold for one of bitcoin to a more balanced exposure, anticipating BTC outperformance. His choice remains a tactical rotation between two complementary assets.

Gold keeps a defensive role linked to its history, liquidity, and adoption by states. Bitcoin is a more offensive option on the same theme: seeking a rare asset versus public debt and monetary expansion.

The signal to watch is thus not only bitcoin’s return above a dollar threshold. If the BTC-gold ratio continues rising while both assets stabilize, Timmer’s preference will gain credibility. If it falls below its former consolidation zone, bitcoin’s recent leadership will appear as another temporary rotation.