Fewer Sales, But Still No Rebound: Bitcoin In Trouble?

It has been almost two weeks since Bitcoin seems to have hit the brakes under the symbolic $100,000 mark. But why this stagnation? Is the market lacking momentum, or is it simply a matter of timing post-holidays? Between persistent illiquidity and low miner activity, the data seems to indicate a loss of momentum. So, could BTC rebound soon, or is it bogged down in a prolonged pause?

Mining less to sell less: a pressure easing for Bitcoin

The Bitcoin news: since November, miners have been playing the cautious cicadas. While mining wallet withdrawals were reaching peaks — 25,367 BTC sent to platforms on November 11, for example — they plunged at the beginning of the year. Only 5,489 BTC were sent to exchanges on January 1.

Result? Fewer bitcoins in circulation, and thus reduced selling pressure.

A few figures to remember:

• Peak of shipments in November: 98,748 BTC sent to platforms in one day;
• In December, daily transfers ranged from 11,000 to 79,000 BTC;
• Beginning of January 2025: barely 2,133 BTC transferred on January 3.

This easing seems to give the market a bit of breathing room, but will it be enough to reignite the momentum?

Crypto trading: volume, key to revival

For a strong comeback to emerge, bitcoin must rekindle its volume appetite. Analysts at Bitfinex have noted this well: without a significant increase in daily trading, reaching $110,000 in January could be miraculous.

Axel Adler, a seasoned expert, emphasizes that the market remains “structurally bullish“, but that “the volume is sorely lacking to drive a real bounce“.

The market structure remains bullish, with no clear signs of being overheated.

However, for a strong impulse, we lack sufficient trading volume. Therefore, we are waiting for the market to recover from the holiday season. pic.twitter.com/OUYfEPWmdv

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) January 4, 2025

However, encouraging signals are emerging:

• $900 million flowed into Bitcoin ETF funds on January 3, marking a resurgence of institutional interest;
• Projections remain optimistic, forecasting a range of $95,000 to $110,000 this month.

Yet, it is essential for small investors to regain their confidence and for the Bitcoin magic to work once again.

Admittedly, Bitcoin’s current pause disappoints some. But let’s remember that last year, the queen of cryptos shone: not only did it smash price records, but it also crossed the symbolic threshold of $19 trillion in transactions. A performance to ponder.