ETH Collapse Ahead ? Technical And On-Chain Signs Intensify

Ethereum falters, and the shadow of previous bearish cycles resurfaces. In the span of three months, ETH has lost more than 65 % of its value, bringing speculators and investors to a major psychological threshold: $1,000. This decline would not just be a simple correction, but an echo of the drops of 2018 and 2022. As indicators slide into panic zones, the prospect of a definitive floor fuels both the hope of a rebound and the fear of prolonged capitulation.

Market Fractals and Technical Signals : A Return to the Abyss ?

Over the last three months, Ether has seen its price collapse by more than 65 %, which has fueled the hypothesis of a return to a historically low level around $1,000.

This drop occurs after a peak reached in December 2024 at $4,095, marked by a bearish divergence of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This setup, where the RSI begins to decline while the price continues to rise, is often seen as a precursor to a trend reversal.

These fractals from the past show that a correction of over 60 % is generally followed by a long-term recovery.

The weekly RSI of ETH currently remains above the oversold threshold of 30, indicating a possible continuation of the bearish trend.

This technical signal is all the more significant as it resonates with previous cycles observed in 2018 and 2022. At this stage, several technical elements should be closely monitored :

• The $1,000 zone as a potential floor, already identified during previous market cycles ;
• The maintenance of the RSI above 30, which suggests room for further decline before a potential rebound ;
• The fractal memory of markets, which informs on recurring price structures on Ethereum during correction periods ;
• An absence of a clear consolidation phase, suggesting still high volatility in the short term.

Investor Capitulation : A Bottom Signal for a Future Rebound ?

Alongside graphical data, on-chain indicators confirm a climate of widespread pessimism. One of them, NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), shows that ETH has entered a zone termed as “capitulation“.

This indicator measures the portion of unrealized gains or losses in the market. When it falls into this zone, it means that the majority of Ethereum wallets are displaying unrealized losses.

This setup has historically coincided with market lows, as seen in December 2018 and June 2022. It indicates that investors are selling out of fear, often at prices lower than their acquisition cost.

The shift in NUPL towards extreme levels suggests increasing psychological pressure among long position holders. These holders, generally more resilient, are starting to capitulate, a phenomenon rarely observed outside of market bottom periods.

The potential impact of this situation could be twofold. On one hand, it signals an exhausted market, where sellers may have already acted. On the other hand, it raises the question of the necessary trigger for sustainable recovery: macroeconomic catalyst, technological update, or reversal of general sentiment.

If the $1,000 threshold were to be reached, or even breached, it could represent a major inflection point. Not as a signal of the end of the world for Ethereum, but rather as a phase of reset. Historically, capitulation zones have preceded the strongest recoveries, provided that the fundamentals follow. The question remains whether the market is ready to root a new bullish cycle or if it is about to further explore the depths of speculative despair.