Bitcoin Spot ETF: Bloomberg is about 75% optimistic

Bloomberg analysts increase their estimates of the chances of approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF in the US. This change is the result of Grayscale’s recent victory against the SEC in the Court of Appeals. An analysis which, if it proves correct, should boost the crypto sector considerably.

In brief:

• Bloomberg analysts estimate that the chances of approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF by the end of 2023 are 75%.
• The SEC is due to make a decision on seven Spot ETF applications over the next five days.
• It is likely that the SEC will approve one or more Bitcoin Spot ETFs, but nothing is certain yet.

Why not approve a Bitcoin Spot ETF?

In an August 30 tweet, Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, makes an unexpected statement. According to him, the chances of approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF by the end of 2023 now rise from 65% to 75%.

Balchunas credits the court’s decision for this increase. In particular, it condemns the SEC’s arguments that Bitcoin Spot ETFs represent a risk to investors.

Indeed, the Court of Appeal unanimously held that there was no justification for rejecting Grayscale’s Bitcoin Spot ETF. As a result, it finds that the SEC lacks sufficient evidence to support its charges. There is no way to demonstrate that Bitcoin Spot ETFs present a risk of abuse and manipulation.

Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein also share their colleague’s opinion. In a separate note, they state that the chances of ETF approval by the end of 2024 are estimated at around 95%.

SEC now under pressure according to Bloomberg, crypto market rejoices

Eric Balchunas believes the SEC will have a hard time preventing the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF. Yet it must make a decision on seven Spot ETF applications over the next five days. These include applications from Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree and Valkyrie.

Balchunas believes he wouldn’t be surprised if the SEC delayed these decisions. However, he points out that the most likely outcome is for the SEC to give in. It may well approve Bitcoin Spot ETFs all at once. Nevertheless, nothing is certain yet, given that the Gensler-led agency is highly unpredictable.

The approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF would be a major development for the crypto industry. For Bloomberg analysts, there’s a 75% chance of this happening before 2024. This optimism is naturally motivated by Grayscale’s recent victory against the SEC.