Death Cross Looms Over Bitcoin’s Rally

Bitcoin is nearing its peaks, but a specter looms over its trajectory. While the asset tests $86,000, a feared technical indicator remains frozen: the “death cross“. This crossover of moving averages, often associated with bearish reversals, survives the current surge. Why does such a signal persist? Is it a mere anomaly or a serious warning? As positions accumulate, traders oscillate between confidence and caution, torn by a market in full dissonance.

A deadly crossover at the heart of the bullish momentum

On April 6, Bitcoin’s daily chart recorded a well-known bearish crossover to technical analysts: the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average, forming what is called a “death cross“.

This signal, feared in technical analysis, appears even as Bitcoin surpassed $86,000 on April 15, 2025, before undergoing a correction minutes later and falling back below $84,000.

Since its creation, the asset has experienced ten similar episodes, the eleventh is now underway. Yet, historical data shows that :

• All Bitcoin bear markets have been preceded by a “death cross” ;
• Not all “death crosses” have led to a bear market ;
• The signal sometimes appears at the end of a correction, not at the beginning.

Such ambivalence prompts analysts to avoid drawing hasty conclusions.

Some observers, like Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, nonetheless call for vigilance. According to him, a worrying divergence is forming between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized capitalization, indicating a possible overvaluation.

He states in a post on April 5 on the social network X (formerly Twitter) that “this pattern has already preceded several major corrections” and estimates that the market could enter a consolidation phase lasting “six to twelve months“. This reading strengthens caution among some market participants, especially those relying on historical cycles of the asset for their analysis.

The death cross : an overrated signal or a rally catalyst ?

Other voices, however, challenge the alarmist interpretation of the “death cross“. Mister Crypto, a well-followed figure in the community, even called the event on X on March 29 “the most hated trap of 2025“.

For this analyst, this crossover could in fact precede a new bullish surge, trapping the most cautious investors, which would generate an underestimated buying opportunity. This interpretation strongly contrasts with the caution expressed by other experts, but it relies on precedents where similar setups were followed by notable market rebounds.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, takes a statistical approach to temper the significance of the “death cross“. According to his data, the price of Bitcoin is on average 3.2 % lower one month after such a signal, but often higher three months later.

He thus explains that “in many cases, the death cross is a buying opportunity rather than a selling signal“. This analysis invites considering the technical crossover as one factor among others, far from being a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The interpretation of this signal fits into a broader context. Other major indices like the Nasdaq 100 or the S&P 500 are also close to forming a “death cross“, suggesting a potentially wider trend in financial markets. While Bitcoin remains strongly influenced by its own internal dynamics, it is not immune to macroeconomic winds. For investors, the key may lie in a nuanced reading of these technical signals, combined with rigorous risk management and constant monitoring of market fundamentals.