Crypto Watch : Can Solana Rebound To $180 ?

The volatility of cryptocurrencies spares no one, and Solana (SOL) is no exception. After reaching a low of $125 on February 28, the native token of the Solana blockchain saw a rebound of 17 %, hinting at a possible return to $180. However, this recovery is far from guaranteed. Still down 50 % from its all-time high of $295, SOL faces several obstacles that could hinder its rise. Between the slowdown of its on-chain activity, the lack of demand in the derivatives markets, and the concentration of transaction fees in the hands of a handful of users, the Solana ecosystem is faltering. What signals might trigger a bullish rally?

A Slowdown in On-Chain Activity

The Solana blockchain built its reputation on its speed and low transaction costs, which attracted many users, particularly in the world of memecoins and NFTs. But over the past few weeks, this excitement has faded. According to DefiLlama data, transaction fees generated on Solana have plunged by 73 % in a month, reflecting a decrease in user engagement.

This slowdown is also evident on the side of the network’s most popular decentralized applications. Jito, the leading liquid staking platform, recorded a 56 % decrease in its number of active addresses in a month, while Magic Eden, the flagship NFT marketplace of the ecosystem, saw its activity decline by 38 %. Even Save (formerly Solend), which offers lending services, experienced a 42 % drop in users.

These figures contrast sharply with those from other networks. On Base, Ethereum’s layer 2 solution, the decrease in the number of active users is only 2 % over the same period. Even Ethereum itself, despite being more expensive and slower, fares better with a decrease of just 17 %. These discrepancies suggest that the slowdown of Solana cannot solely be attributed to the bursting of the memecoin bubble, but that it reflects a deeper exhaustion of on-chain activity.

Structural Obstacles and Lack of Bullish Catalysts

Beyond the decline in blockchain activity, other factors impede Solana’s potential for recovery. One of the most notable is the lack of interest from leveraged traders. On the SOL futures market, the funding rate for perpetual contracts has remained negative in recent days. This means that short sellers are willing to pay to maintain their positions, a signal that indicates a lasting bearish sentiment.

Another critical point: the concentration of transaction fees among a limited number of crypto players. According to an analysis shared by Arndxt on social network X (formerly Twitter) on March 7, 2025, author of the newsletter “Threading on the Edge,” 95 % of fees on Solana would be generated by only 1.3 % of users. These transactions are mainly due to MEV bots and market-making firms like Wintermute, rather than broad and diverse adoption. Such centralization exposes the network to dysfunctions in case these players retract.

Finally, the absence of Solana in the portfolios of World Liberty Financial (WLF), a fund associated with President Donald Trump, has also weighed on the asset. Although the TRUMP crypto, a memecoin launched on Solana, experienced some hype, WLF opted to invest in Ethereum (ETH), Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), Chainlink (LINK), and Aave (AAVE), but not in SOL. This lack of allocation in a visible institutional portfolio can be perceived as a lack of recognition of Solana’s long-term potential.

To hope to reclaim $180, Solana will need to overcome several challenges. A resurgence in on-chain activity, particularly outside the crypto market of memecoins, would be a positive signal. However, a significant announcement, such as the approval of a Solana ETF in the United States, could trigger a buying wave and force short sellers to liquidate their positions, creating a short squeeze effect. For now, uncertainty prevails, and investors are closely monitoring the upcoming developments.