Crypto: Polymarket Accuses A French Trader Of Manipulating Bets On Trump!

The online prediction market has never been under more pressure, and this time, Polymarket finds itself at the center of an intriguing affair. The betting platform on political events discovered that a single French trader, operating under multiple pseudonyms, was behind a significant volume of bets on Donald Trump’s election chances. This situation has raised suspicions of market manipulation. So, what is really happening behind these large-scale bets?

A French trader in the spotlight

It all started when a series of massive bets were spotted on Polymarket, targeting the chances of Donald Trump being re-elected.

After an internal investigation conducted with outside experts, the crypto platform discovered that a French trader, experienced in financial services, was managing multiple accounts. This trader, operating under the pseudonyms Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, collectively placed nearly $28 million in bets related to the U.S. presidential election.

Despite the scale of these bets, Polymarket found no evidence of deliberate manipulation. According to them, the trader simply took a strong directional position, betting on a possible victory for Trump.

However, this discovery raised questions about how such massive bets could influence the general sentiment of other users on the platform, particularly by artificially inflating the probabilities.

Massive bets, but no manipulation?

Although Polymarket conducted a thorough investigation, in collaboration with Nardello & Company, a renowned investigation firm, it seems that the actions of the French trader do not constitute intentional manipulation.

The latter used several accounts to place relatively modest bets so as not to raise prices suspiciously. However, the overall volume of his bets suggests that his influence on the platform is significant.

Meanwhile, other significant movements have been observed on Polymarket. For example, another anonymous trader, Ly67890, bet $2 million on Kamala Harris, seeking to bolster her chances in the presidential race. To date, Trump remains in the lead with 62.2% of the votes on Polymarket, while Harris has seen her chances drop to 38%.

The weight of big players in political predictions

This case raises a crucial question: to what extent can a single trader influence a predictive market like Polymarket? While the platform insists on the absence of direct manipulation, the concentration of massive bets can give other users the impression that certain trends are stronger than they actually are. In a universe where perceptions shape reality, this type of intervention can weigh heavily.

Polymarket, which prides itself on being a reliable tool for gauging political events, will need to continue monitoring the influence of these powerful actors closely. The crypto industry must also reflect on how to maintain a balance between freedom to bet and protection against potential abuses. Additionally, here is the biggest crypto collapse.