Crypto: $2.2 Billion In Options Expiring Today!

This Friday, while the stock markets close for “Good Friday“, the crypto market remains tense. Over 2.2 billion dollars worth of options on Bitcoin and Ethereum are expiring: a massive volume capturing traders’ attention. This technical expiration, although anticipated, occurs in a climate of great uncertainty, between bullish signals, extreme pain levels, and pressures linked to U.S. monetary policy. While the options expire, the risks remain intact.

A Massive Expiration on Crypto Derivatives Markets

This Good Friday, traditional markets observe a truce, but the crypto world remains active. On this special day, over 2.2 billion dollars worth of options expire on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) markets.

For Bitcoin, the figures are particularly significant with 23,221 contracts, equivalent to 1.966 billion dollars. The put/call ratio is 0.96, indicating a slight dominance of bullish bets. Additionally, the “max pain“, the price at which the maximum loss is recorded for options holders, is estimated at 82,000 dollars. A ratio below 1 indicates that more investors have bet on a price increase rather than a decrease.

For Ethereum, the situation is marked by smaller amounts but a comparable dynamic. Here are the key figures:

• 177,130 contracts are expiring, for a notional value of 279.789 million dollars;
• The put/call ratio is 0.84, signaling a prevalence of call options;
• The maximum pain price is set at 1,600 dollars, well below current market levels.

This data shows that, despite a technical structure dominated by bullish investors, the gap between current prices and “max pain” levels could lead to hedging strategies in the coming hours. Investors scrutinize these expirations to anticipate short-term tensions or lulls.

A Deceptive Calm and Signs of Vulnerability

Behind the apparent price stability hides a pressured market. As analysts at Deribit point out: “current conditions are marked by suppressed volatility and price asymmetry, suggesting an apparent neutrality of sentiment“.

However, this pattern, often observed on the eve of violent movements, should not be taken lightly. “With suppressed volatility and price asymmetry, is the market preparing for a post-expiration move?“, these analysts wonder.

Analysts from Greeks.live, on the other hand, adopt a darker view of the situation. Although the week was marked by relative media calm from Donald Trump, they note a dominant bearish trend and warn:

In this market where optimistic investors have become pessimistic, the probability of a black swan event is significantly higher.

Their recommendation is to consider “out-of-the-money” put options, that is, put options with a strike price below the current price of the underlying asset, as protection against a possible market breakdown.

This distrust is also explained by a tense macroeconomic environment, notably after comments by the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, which cooled hopes for a rapid rate cut.

The combination of these signals (declining volatility, position tightening, and uncertain macroeconomic climate) opens the door to several scenarios. While the hypothesis of post-expiration stabilization remains plausible in the short term, the risk of an unexpected shock cannot be ruled out, especially in a market already strongly correlated to the dynamics of traditional assets. In any case, the coming days will be closely watched by traders and investors, searching for signs of a breakdown or confirmation of a lasting trend.