Crypto: Assets with a growth trajectory similar to that of the Internet?

By the late 1990s, emerging Internet technology was met with doubt and skepticism about its potential for widespread adoption. Yet, here we are almost 3 decades later, with the Internet having become a ubiquitous part of everyday life. Will cryptocurrencies, which cannot be issued without blockchain technology, follow a similar path? Or, on the contrary, will they take a different route and fade over time? In a recent report, leading investment bank Architect Partners seeks to answer these critical questions in light of the crypto industry’s dynamics in recent months. Here, in this article, is the essence of what we should take away from it.

A Look Back at the Evolution of Internet Technology

Conceived in the 1960s, Internet underwent a transformative phase towards the end of the 1990s. This technology indeed evolved from its uncertain beginnings. To get there, the Internet strived to establish efficient inter-computer communication. This key milestone was reached in March 1992 with the introduction of TCP/IP. A monumental breakthrough that laid the groundwork for the future development of the Internet.

We arrive in the mid-1990s. The Internet began to take shape with the emergence of rudimentary web pages. This opened the way for the rise of influential firms such as AOL, Yahoo, and Netscape, collectively recognized today as Web 1.0 platforms. These platforms enabled early users to glimpse the potential of the Internet by providing services ranging from email to search to web browsing.

However, it was at the end of the 1990s that the Internet would undergo an absolute metamorphosis. Indeed, this period saw investments in the Internet sector explode. A dynamic notably fueled by the growing popularity of personal computers and advances in software technology. This influx of capital played a significant role in the development of the Internet, especially as it stimulated technological innovation and paved the way for the creation of revolutionary software tools that have shaped the Internet as we know it today. It was in this context that companies such as Amazon, Google, Salesforce, Equinix, Expedia, and Netflix were born, which would eventually dominate the Internet landscape. Thanks to these Internet giants, this technology has established itself as an omnipresent part of daily life, opening the way for new possibilities. Will crypto undergo a similar evolution?

Will Crypto Follow the Same Path as the Internet?

Between 1995 and 2000, the world witnessed an unprecedented increase in investments in internet companies. This allowed the tech sector to skyrocket, reaching the staggering figure of $5.6 trillion in 1999. This booming period was marked by exuberant optimism and speculative frenzy, with investors pouring money into any enterprise related to the Internet. However, the euphoria was short-lived as the bubble burst in 2000, leading to a rapid decline in stock prices and market valuations. By 2002, 74% of the perceived value of the Internet had evaporated, leaving many investors with significant losses.

Following the Internet crash, the tech industry underwent a profound transformation. The once abundant flow of venture capital dried up, leading to a period of reassessment. Skeptics, who had warned about the unsustainable nature of the frenzy, felt vindicated by the market’s brutal correction. It seemed that the lofty promises of the Internet were nothing more than hype and speculation.

Despite this setback, the spirit of innovation persisted. Out of the ashes of the Internet collapse, a new breed of companies emerged, showing resilience and adaptability. Platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, and Skype pioneered in their respective fields, harnessing the transformative power of the Internet to revolutionize communication, collaboration, and business processes.

Reflecting on the trajectory of the Internet, observers note that what appeared to be a rapid innovation had actually unfolded over nearly 34 years. That’s close to half a lifetime for some. In this context, a question arises: will cryptocurrencies also follow a trajectory similar to that of the Internet to end up being widely integrated into society’s functioning?

In its report, Architect Partners does not definitively settle the question. However, what it does highlight is that, like the Internet before it, crypto has elicited, and still elicits today, as much enthusiasm as skepticism.

Its supporters tout its potential to democratize finance, facilitate cross-border transactions, and open new possibilities for innovation. Its critics, on the other hand, warn against its volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and association with illicit activities.

As the debate unfolds, it becomes increasingly clear that the trajectory of cryptos will depend on a myriad of factors. The most decisive being technological progress, regulatory evolution, market dynamics, and societal acceptance. Like the Internet before them, cryptos may experience periods of excitement and disillusionment.

However, their underlying promise of being a transformative force in finance and beyond seems within reach. It remains to be seen whether crypto will achieve a ubiquity comparable to that of the Internet or if it will remain on the sidelines. One thing is certain: its journey will probably be as tumultuous and transformative as the one the Internet undertook decades earlier.

Conclusion

The evolution of the crypto industry seems to be following in the footsteps of the Internet. Like the latter, cryptocurrencies evoke both enthusiasm and skepticism. While some view them as having the potential to revolutionize finance and innovation, others fear their volatility and association with illicit activities. However, just like the Internet’s journey before it, the trajectory of cryptos will depend on technological advances, regulation, among other factors. If they manage to overcome these challenges, cryptos could experience widespread adoption, just as the Internet has become omnipresent in our day-to-day lives.