Crypto: $270,000 Lost On Polymarket Due To Durov's Exit

The release of Pavel Durov has sparked mixed reactions in the crypto community. Many firmly believed that the CEO of Telegram would remain in prison in France for a long time. However, against all odds, Durov was released on bail on August 28th, overturning the predictions of many bettors on Polymarket, a crypto betting platform, who saw their hopes of profits vanish.

Telegram: An early release that confounds bettors

Toncoin fell by 20% after Durov’s arrest, unfortunate! But also note that the early release of Pavel Durov caught many bettors on Polymarket, a very popular crypto prediction platform, off guard.

These bettors thought that the French authorities would extend the detention of the Telegram CEO, mainly due to his immense fortune and his multiple nationalities, including that of the United Arab Emirates, a country that does not extradite its citizens.

However, on August 28th, Durov regained his freedom after posting a bail of 5 million euros. This turn of events cost those who were betting on continued detention dearly, making them lose a total of $270,000.

In the crypto world, where every move by Durov is scrutinized, this news had the effect of a bombshell. A certain “Champ”, a seasoned bettor, however, anticipated this outcome and pocketed the tidy sum of $56,638 by betting on the August release, proving that sometimes, instinct trumps caution.

Crypto: An industry shaken by the volatility of prediction markets

The Durov affair highlighted the risks associated with betting on the crypto market, where volatility reigns supreme. On Polymarket, the probabilities of an August release were estimated at only 30% a few days before the announcement. 

However, these odds climbed to 50% in the hours leading up to the release, catching many bettors off guard. The majority had bet on prolonged detention, based on probabilities oscillating between 75% and 90% for a release after September.

This case well illustrates the dangers of prediction markets in the world of crypto, where even the safest bets can collapse in the blink of an eye. Note that Toncoin and Ethereum have led to a market crash, analysts specify.

Meanwhile, a contract on Polymarket estimated only a 6% likelihood that Durov would leave France before mid-September, showing that despite the uncertainties, confidence in adhering to the release conditions remains relatively high.

Pavel Durov, although released on bail, could still face a sentence of up to 20 years in prison, according to specialists.