Chinese Exports Plunge As U.S. Tariffs Take A Toll

The global economic scene is in full turbulence. In just a few months, trade tensions between China and the United States have reached a new level, weighing heavily on the Asian giant’s foreign trade. The official figures published by Chinese customs reflect a brutal slowdown, much more pronounced than expected, in exports and imports. In the background, a declining internal consumption and an uncertain economic climate heighten concerns. As Beijing sets an ambitious growth target, this halt raises many questions about the country’s ability to maintain its dynamism in the face of repeated attacks from Washington.

An unexpected collapse in Chinese foreign trade

The Chinese exports, a historical engine of the country’s growth, recorded an anemic increase of 2.3 % in January and February, a figure well below analysts’ expectations of 5.9 %. This slowdown is even more significant given that in December, the increase still reached 10.7 %. This underperformance is not coincidental. Economist Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management points out that “this slowdown may be partly due to a decrease in anticipated shipments, which had been particularly strong in late 2024 ahead of the trade war.” Thus, the imposition of new tariffs by the United States, a few weeks after Donald Trump’s second term began, risks further tightening the situation.

However, it is mainly the imports that worry observers. Over the same period, they fell by 8.4 %, a decline far more severe than forecasts that anticipated a slight increase. Several factors explain this trend: on one hand, declining domestic demand, indicative of a morose consumption climate, and on the other hand, a slowdown in the import of parts and components used for re-export. A situation that further weakens an economy already strained by the property crisis and geopolitical tensions.

A trade war that threatens the global economic balance

Beyond the simple decline of the figures, this data confirms the impact of Sino-American tensions. Since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has adopted a hardline stance, multiplying sanctions by increasing trade barriers against Chinese products. The argument put forth by Washington is based on the fight against fentanyl trafficking, accusing Beijing of not taking sufficient measures to curb this phenomenon. A pretext that actually masks a clear intention to halt Chinese economic expansion and protect American industry.

For Beijing, the response is delicate. During the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), Prime Minister Li Qiang reaffirmed a national growth target of 5 % for the current year, a target deemed ambitious by many experts. This slowdown in foreign trade could complicate the government’s task, which already has to juggle a crisis-stricken real estate market and a growing public debt. Far from being anecdotal, the current situation could have repercussions well beyond China’s borders, affecting global supply chains and putting pressure on economies reliant on Chinese exports.

This trade war between the two largest economic powers in the world shows no signs of easing. If the real effects of American sanctions still need to be fully measured, the current trajectory suggests a hardening of relations and a prolonged period of uncertainty for international trade.