China-Russia Trade Boom : A Warning For The West?

Global economic relations are evolving under the effect of geopolitical tensions and the strategic repositioning of major powers. In this context, China and Russia are consolidating their trade partnership, which is reaching a historic record of 240 billion euros in 2024. This boom illustrates a strategic rapprochement strengthened by Western sanctions against Moscow and Beijing’s desire to expand its influence. More than a simple economic alliance, this cooperation sends a clear signal to the United States and the European Union, who are seeking to limit their influence on the global stage. Thus, the rise of trade flows, the increased use of the yuan in transactions, and the restructuring of international financial circuits now raise the question of the long-term consequences of this Sino-Russian agreement.

A Bilateral Trade in Full Expansion Despite Sanctions

The trade exchanges between China and Russia reached a record level of 240 billion euros in 2024, with a growth of 2 % compared to the previous year, according to official data from Chinese customs. Although this progress is more moderate than in 2023, when the increase reached 26.3 %, it confirms the strength of the economic partnership between the two countries. Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, Sino-Russian cooperation has taken on a new dimension. Indeed, Moscow is seeking alternative outlets in the face of Western sanctions while Beijing adopts a posture of strategic neutrality, allowing it to maintain and even enhance its relations with Russia.

In this context, Russian exports to China are primarily based on hydrocarbons and raw materials, which exceeded 94 billion dollars in 2023. Oil, gas, and minerals constitute most of the products sent to the Chinese market, ensuring Moscow essential revenue for its economy, while Europe progressively reduces its dependence on Russian gas and aims for a total halt by 2027. In return, China is intensifying its exports of manufactured and technological goods and is even consolidating its role as a key supplier for the Russian industry, which is experiencing the effects of sanctions and restrictions imposed by the United States and the European Union. This interdependence strengthens the economic rapprochement between the two nations, redefining their alliances in the face of external pressures.

The Dedollarization and Global Economic Tensions

The evolution of Sino-Russian exchanges goes beyond trade volumes. The growing role of the yuan in these transactions marks a major shift. Now, the Chinese currency dominates bilateral settlements, reflecting a joint desire to reduce dependence on the US dollar. This transition directly benefits Beijing, which seeks to internationalize its currency, and Moscow, which sees it as a way to shield itself from Western sanctions. According to an analysis by Cepii (Centre for Prospective Studies and International Information), the progressive dedollarization of the Russian economy has allowed the ruble to regain some stability after it had sharply depreciated in 2022 under the impact of financial sanctions.

This monetary rebalancing is part of a global context marked by rising economic tensions. Donald Trump’s return to the White House could further disrupt the Chinese economy. Indeed, the elected president has already announced his intention to significantly raise tariffs on Chinese imports, with taxes ranging between 10 % and 20 % on all products and possibly reaching 100% on certain strategic goods. Such a trade policy would directly threaten Chinese exports, already weakened by American technological restrictions. In the face of this uncertainty, Beijing may further strengthen its partnership with Moscow, which seeks to offset potential losses in the American market by consolidating its influence in Eurasia. However, this strategy carries risks, including an overexposure of the Chinese economy to Russian fluctuations and further deterioration of relations with Washington, which could accelerate the fragmentation of global trade into competing economic blocks.

The economic rapprochement between China and Russia reshapes global trade balances. While Moscow seeks to circumvent Western sanctions, Beijing strengthens its influence through the diversification of its alliances. This dynamic pushes major powers to reconsider their economic and monetary strategies, in a context where the rise of the yuan and dedollarization is altering international financial circuits. If this cooperation offers both countries an alternative to American and European pressures, it could also rekindle trade and diplomatic tensions, particularly with the United States, which is contemplating new restrictions on Chinese imports. In the long term, this Sino-Russian alliance could accelerate the fragmentation of the global economy, further intensifying polarization between competing economic blocks.