China Is About to Invade Taiwan

Taiwanese youth enjoy life as if nothing is wrong. Yet, the threat of a Chinese invasion has never been more present. And when the Chinese Communist Party launches its offensive, we will officially enter a third world war.

China is putting pressure on Taiwan

The Chinese military exercises on October 14, 2024, simulating a blockade of Taiwan, marked a new turning point in the crisis. This fourth major show of force since August 2022 is part of an increasingly aggressive intimidation strategy.

The Chinese strategy is not limited to military displays. Beijing deploys a complete arsenal of destabilization tactics: severing underwater cables, sand dredging, drone overflights, boat incursions. Air and naval patrols regularly cross the median line of the strait, an unofficial border once respected.

A conflict with deep roots

The tension dates back to 1949, when the regime of the Republic of China retreated to Taiwan after the communist victory. For Beijing, the island is an integral part of the Chinese nation. This claim has led to several major crises, notably in 1995-1996 during Taiwan’s first direct presidential election.

In 2005, Chinese anti-secession law officially established the possibility of military intervention if peaceful means of reunification were exhausted. Since then, China has amassed an impressive arsenal: millions of kamikaze drones, hundreds of nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and a rapidly expanding navy.

The strategy of encirclement

Rather than a direct, costly, and risky invasion, Beijing favors a war of attrition strategy. This “gray zone” approach aims to gradually erode Taiwanese resistance through constant pressure. Recent encirclement maneuvers demonstrate that the People’s Republic of China feels in a position of strength.

The Taiwanese president maintains a firm stance. During the national holiday on October 10, he reaffirmed that neither side of the strait should be subordinated to the other. This statement, labeled “independentist” by Beijing, provoked a new military escalation.

Taiwan facing the Chinese empire

The paradox is striking: Taiwan is a prosperous and peaceful democracy. Its inhabitants live happily, freely, and productively. The streets are safe, the cities clean, and the economy thriving. There is no racial conflict, no religious tension, and no boiling political anger.

Yet, powerful men in Beijing could decide to destroy everything by force. China has means of pressure other than military force: diplomacy, economy, and cognitive warfare are used to achieve its objectives.

Beijing masters the art of flirting with the red line without crossing it.

America’s withdrawal in the face of China

The United States, once guarantors of regional stability, seem increasingly withdrawn into themselves. Their support remains crucial for Taiwan, but the island knows it must primarily rely on itself. The day an offensive is triggered, it will be too late for an external response.

While Beijing advances rapidly in strategic areas such as robotics and artificial intelligence, America is bogged down in its internal divisions. This political paralysis contrasts with the Chinese technological dynamism.

Resistance is organizing

In the face of these threats, Taiwan is not remaining passive. The island is developing a deterrence strategy and is trying to convince Beijing to reconsider its ambitions by highlighting the disastrous consequences of a conflict. The two main Taiwanese political parties, despite their differences, are uniting to defend the sovereignty of the island.

The Minister of Digital Affairs of Taiwan compares the Chinese threat to earthquakes: Taiwanese people have grown accustomed to living with it. But this apparent serenity could prove dangerous.

Taiwan’s future is in suspense

The post-Cold War world is coming to an end. The imperial ambitions of China shape the contours of a more dangerous world, where nuclear proliferation and arms races threaten global stability. The conquest of Taiwan could trigger a chain reaction with unpredictable consequences.

The big question may no longer be whether China will invade the island, but when and how. The multiplication of tensions and provocations paints a worrying picture. Between diplomacy and military threat, the balance is fragile. The fate of this democratic island may well become the symbol of the new world taking shape before our eyes.

As the Chinese army progresses off its shores, Taiwan continues its daily life. The threat of a Taiwan invasion has never been more concrete, and the year 2025 may mark a decisive turning point in the island’s history. Beyond Taiwan, it is the future of the world order that is at stake in this strait.