Can Bitcoin Still Bounce Back to 90,000 Dollars?

The cryptocurrency market is looking for a foothold after several sessions of decline. Bitcoin is trading around 69,000 dollars, while investors evaluate the latest US inflation figures. For Matt Mena, strategist at 21shares, a return to 87,000 dollars remains possible, with a move above 90,000 dollars in the longer term. However, this outlook depends on specific technical levels and a sustained return of buyers to the market.

A rebound conditioned by reclaiming the technical thresholds

In his commentary submitted to Bitcoin.com News on November 13, Matt Mena described bitcoin’s recovery as still fragile. The senior research strategist on cryptocurrencies at 21shares observes support around 69,000 dollars. After the publication of the US producer price index, the price tried to recover to the 70,000 dollars level. This reaction suggests some buyers return when selling pressure eases.

Mena believes however that a lasting move requires several steps. Bitcoin must first reclaim 70,000 dollars, then break through the 74,000 dollar zone. These two thresholds are important markers after the recent decline. As long as the market remains below these levels, the rebound does not yet confirm a solid trend change.

We consider this rebound as an encouraging sign indicating that buyers step in as selling pressure eases, even though a sustained recovery will require bitcoin to regain 70,000 dollars, then 74,000 dollars.

Matt Mena, senior research strategist on cryptocurrencies at 21shares. Source: 21shares.

Holding above 69,000 dollars could form a base for recovery. Conversely, a break of this support would make 65,000 dollars vulnerable to a retest. Mena also recalls that successive lows are about 20% above the cycle bottom, set at 57,000 dollars. This rise of lows is a sign of resilience despite recent weakness.

Producer price inflation brings respite to Bitcoin markets

The release of the producer price index contributed to the return of buying. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a monthly increase of 0.3% in October. This pace marks a clear slowdown compared to the revised 1.4% increase recorded in September. The figures thus offered a less worrying signal on recent evolving costs borne by producers.

However, the annual trend remains less favorable. Producer price inflation rose from 6.3% to 6.5%, its highest level since November 2022. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices increased by 0.5% month-over-month and 4.9% year-over-year. The report thus presents mixed signals, between monthly slowdown and annual acceleration.

Before this release, bitcoin had rebounded after an intraday low near 67,500 dollars. It then again neared 70,000 dollars, without significantly extending its move. This reaction came after a decline that drove it below 74,000, 72,000, then 70,000 dollars. However, trading volume remained modest compared to volumes observed during previous sell-offs.

Liquidations and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs weigh on recovery

The rebound occurred after a strong wave of liquidations in the cryptocurrency market. Over 24 hours, their amount reached 1.62 billion dollars according to Coinglass data. Long positions represented 1.46 billion dollars of this total. These forced sales increased pressure as platforms closed leveraged positions.

This phenomenon affected bitcoin as well as other digital assets. When prices drop rapidly, positions financed by loans can undergo automatic liquidations. These operations add sales to the initial move and complicate the return of steady demand. Stabilization around 69,000 dollars must therefore be monitored carefully.

Institutional demand is another point of vigilance. On November 12, US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered 284.1 million dollars in net outflows. This was their sixth consecutive session of outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT fund accounted for 203.8 million dollars of these outflows, prior to the release of producer price inflation figures.

These outflows show that institutional flows are not yet clearly supporting the rebound. They alone are not sufficient to determine the market’s next direction. Still, they signal weaker demand for these investment products. To confirm the recovery, the price will need to regain its technical levels while fund outflows slow down.

The August precedent fuels the scenario of a return towards 90,000 dollars

Mena recalls that market moves can accelerate when momentum changes. At the end of August, bitcoin rose from about 62,000 to 78,000 dollars in three days. This rise represented an increase of 25%. For the strategist, this episode shows that a quick return of buyers can change the price trajectory.

His scenario first forecasts a possible return to 87,000 dollars. A move above 90,000 dollars also remains conceivable, but would depend on a durable improvement in demand. From a base near 69,000 dollars, reaching 87,000 dollars would imply a rise of about 26%. The 90,000 dollar threshold would require progress close to 30%.

A rebound towards 87,000 dollars and a potential break above 90,000 dollars remain possible. Especially considering seasonality, as the fourth quarter has historically been the best for bitcoin, with average returns over 61%. 

Matt Mena, senior research strategist on cryptocurrencies at 21shares. Source: 21shares.

The strategist also mentions seasonality to support this outlook. According to historical data he cites, the fourth quarter has often been the most favorable period for bitcoin. Average returns would have exceeded 61% during this part of the year. However, this past trend does not guarantee a repetition of the current move, especially after recent sell-offs and ETF outflows.

The levels of 69,000 and 65,000 dollars remain decisive

Mena’s analysis is primarily based on the market’s ability to defend its immediate support. In technical analysis, a support denotes a zone where buying can slow down a decline. Resistance corresponds, conversely, to a zone where selling can limit a rise. These markers help follow the steps necessary for a potential recovery.

Holding above 69,000 dollars would strengthen the possibility of stabilization. Returning above 70,000 dollars would then constitute a first sign of reclaiming. The 74,000 dollar level would represent an additional step before any projection towards 87,000 dollars. Without crossing these thresholds, the 90,000 dollar objective would remain a conditional hypothesis.

Conversely, a drop below 69,000 dollars would weaken this scenario. Mena then estimates the market might retest 65,000 dollars. This zone would become particularly important after the recent decline and massive liquidations. Buyers’ reaction at this level would help measure demand strength.

The next move will therefore depend on several elements identified by the strategist. The market will need to defend its support, regain lost levels and show steadier demand. Monthly inflation figures brought a respite, but annual data and ETF outflows maintain uncertainties. The trajectory towards 87,000 then 90,000 dollars remains possible, while a drop back to 65,000 dollars remains a clear risk.

BTC can still target 90,000 dollars according to 21shares’ scenario, but this projection requires a progressive reclaiming of technical thresholds. In the short term, defending 69,000 dollars and returning above 70,000 then 74,000 dollars will be decisive. If these levels give way, the market could rather turn towards a new test of 65,000 dollars.