BTC Has 75 % Shot At New ATH, Says Analyst

Predictions shape the crypto market, especially when they come from seasoned analysts. As Bitcoin surpasses $85,000, attention turns to its outlook. One statement stands out: Timothy Peterson estimates a 75 % probability that BTC will reach a new ATH by the end of the year. His analysis is based on historical network data, far from risky speculation. As the halving approaches, this forecast fuels debates and could well influence investor decisions.

A quantifiable probability based on network history

In a post published on March 24 on the social network X (formerly Twitter), Timothy Peterson, an economist specializing in the analysis of the Bitcoin network, claims that BTC has “a 75 % chance of reaching a new all-time high in the next nine months.”

This projection relies on a ten-year study of Bitcoin price data, analyzed from a seasonal perspective. Thus, he specifies that BTC is currently operating “near the lower bound of its historical range”, which would statistically strengthen the probabilities of a rebound.

He also points out that “Bitcoin has a one in two chance of gaining more than 50 % in the short term”, indicating a favorable setup for a bullish acceleration in the coming months.

This analysis by Peterson is based on several key observations from his seasonal model:

• BTC has historically shown strong performance in April and October, with average monthly returns of +12.98 % and +21.98 %, respectively ;
• This current market behavior positions Bitcoin in the lower 25 % of its historical range, which statistically reinforces the probability of a bullish reversal ;
• The methodological approach is based on probabilistic reasoning, rather than a categorical prediction, marking an important distinction from purely speculative projections ;
• This interpretation occurs in the context of high market expectations surrounding the upcoming halving, expected in April, although Peterson does not explicitly base his forecast on this event.

The approach developed by Timothy Peterson aims to be objective, grounded in tangible historical data rather than short-term market signals. It informs about a potential cyclical dynamic of Bitcoin and implicitly reminds that even a high probability is not a certainty.

Technical thresholds and whale behaviors closely scrutinized

Beyond statistical models, other indicators enrich market analysis. According to Crazzyblockk, an analyst at CryptoQuant, the price range between $84,000 and $85,000 currently constitutes a critical threshold for institutional investors and whales.

He indicates on March 25 that “the realized price for short-term whales is $91,000”, but most heavily active addresses have an average cost basis in this lower range. This price level thus acts as a strategic support zone: a drop below could encourage selling and lead to a marked correction.

CryptoQuant data further confirms favorable seasonal trends for Bitcoin. Indeed, the months of April and October record the best annual performances for BTC. This time factor, combined with well-identified technical thresholds, presents a fertile ground for a bullish progression, particularly if demand remains strong in the context of the imminent halving.

In sum, these analyses reveal a conjunction of favorable signals, both technical and behavioral. If Bitcoin were to sustainably exceed $90,000, the probabilities of a new ATH could quickly strengthen. Conversely, a drop below this critical threshold could trigger defensive volatility.