BRICS: The Secret War Between Moscow and Riyadh Could Blow Up the Alliance!

The oil price war is rarely a simple commercial confrontation; it often hides geopolitical stakes of much broader scope. Today, a new episode of this struggle is being played out on the international stage between two energy giants: Russia and Saudi Arabia. As the world still struggles to recover from the economic repercussions of the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine continues to reshape the maps of global influence, these two major BRICS players are fiercely competing for dominance in the Asian market. Their maneuvers could well disrupt the established order, both within OPEC and at the heart of global strategic alliances.

The fight for the Asian market

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia has been forced to redefine its commercial strategies, particularly in the energy sector. Isolated by Western sanctions, Moscow turned to Asia to sell its oil, finding top-tier trading partners in China and India. This shift was so effective that in just a few months, Russia managed to become China’s main oil supplier, even surpassing Saudi Arabia, which once held a dominant position in this strategic market. This rapid conquest of the Asian market by Russia has deeply shaken Riyadh, which sees its market share dwindling, an unacceptable situation for the kingdom that has long made the Asian market the cornerstone of its energy strategy.

In response to this Russian offensive, Saudi Arabia considered an economic countermeasure: increasing its production to lower the price per barrel and thus regain its competitiveness in the Asian market. However, the production capacities of the two countries differ greatly. Russia, though ambitious, is limited in its ability to significantly boost production, only able to add a few hundred barrels per day. In contrast, Saudi Arabia has a much more comfortable margin, with the ability to add up to 3 million barrels per day. This difference could prove decisive in this battle where each additional barrel can tip the balance of power.

Geopolitical implications and potential consequences

As the economic rivalry between Russia and Saudi Arabia intensifies, the geopolitical repercussions of this confrontation are beginning to be felt. Moscow, already weakened by Western sanctions, finds itself increasingly isolated on the international stage, while Riyadh, bolstered by its internal stability and strategic alliances, gains influence. This dynamic is not without consequences within BRICS, where tensions between these two influential members risk compromising the group’s unity. Saudi Arabia, newly integrated into this alliance, could well use its economic clout to counter Russian ambitions, even threatening to leave the group if its interests are jeopardized.

In this context of growing rivalry, the role of China, the main beneficiary of the tensions between its two partners, becomes crucial. Beijing, by tightening its oversight on Russian financial transactions, sends a strong signal: it will not tolerate disruptions that could destabilize its own interests. This stance could push Russia to reconsider its alliances and seek new strategies to maintain its position in the Asian market. If tensions continue to escalate, they could not only weaken OPEC but also shake the very foundations of BRICS, calling into question the viability of this alliance in an increasingly multipolar world.

This standoff could well redefine geopolitical balances and challenge the unity of BRICS, which are already struggling to weaken the dollar as they intended.