BRICS Now Represents 51 % Of Global Population

The center of gravity of the global economy is gradually shifting towards new alliances. In the face of the waning influence of Western institutions, another bloc is consolidating its power. Since January 1^st, 2025, the BRICS have taken a new step by welcoming nine partner states. This expansion, decided at the Kazan summit in October 2024, strengthens their political and economic weight and broadens their reach in emerging markets. Now, the organization accounts for 51 % of the global population and generates 40.4% of global GDP in purchasing power parity.

A strategic enlargement to strengthen the influence of the BRICS

The enlargement of the BRICS was realized on January 1^st, 2025, marking a new milestone in the group’s evolution. This decision, made during the Kazan summit in October 2024, reflects a desire to extend the influence of emerging powers on the international stage. Now, nine new partner states join the organization: Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan.

These countries do not obtain full membership status but gain expanded participation rights. They are now invited to extraordinary summit sessions as well as ministerial meetings, where they can contribute to final statements and strategic decisions of the group. This enlargement reflects the ambition of the BRICS to increase their role in global governance, through the integration of new actors from three continents.

For the Brazilian presidency, this expansion aims to “consolidate the place of emerging economies on the global stage” and to “strengthen South-South cooperation.” With the addition of key nations from Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, the BRICS diversify their influence and strengthen their regional alliances. Among the new partners, Indonesia stands out due to its demographic weight. With 280 million inhabitants, it becomes the third most populous country in the group, just behind China and India. Moreover, alongside it, Thailand and Malaysia provide an economic foundation that surpasses that of South Africa, highlighting the gradual rise of Southeast Asia within the alliance.

The integration of these new states confirms the rise of the BRICS and their desire to rebalance global power dynamics. However, this enlargement also poses new challenges, particularly in terms of governance and political coordination, which are likely to complicate the group’s functioning.

The challenges of an enlargement with divergent ambitions

The enlargement of the BRICS represents a major advancement but also reveals internal divergences and coordination difficulties within the group. Although this first wave of integration has allowed for an expansion of the bloc’s influence, it also exposes the limits of its expansion. Several invited countries did not respond, highlighting the sometimes contradictory interests between members and candidate states.

Saudi Arabia, although courted for more than a year, has still not formalized its membership. This reluctance reflects strategic tensions, notably regarding energy and monetary relations. For its part, Argentina, under President Javier Milei, chose to withdraw from the process in December 2023, just weeks after the election of the ultra-liberal head of state. This turnaround is explained by a stated desire to tighten ties with Western institutions rather than anchor itself in an alliance dominated by China and Russia.

One of the major challenges for the BRICS will be to harmonize the economic and political ambitions of an increasingly diversified group. Thus, the integration of partners with varied profiles, such as Cuba and Indonesia, complicates decision-making. On the one hand, some states adopt a state-directed approach to their economy, while others rely on an opening to the global market. This heterogeneity risks hindering the group’s effectiveness, particularly on key issues like the dedollarization of international trade or the reform of global financial institutions.

In the face of these challenges, the Brazilian presidency emphasizes the need to “federate the voices of developing countries” to better defend their common interests. However, the divergences in economic trajectories and governance differences could slow down the adoption of a unified strategy in the face of major Western powers. As the organization expands, the question of its internal cohesion becomes imperative. Further enlargement, if not accompanied by institutional reform, could weaken the BRICS’ ability to effectively influence the global economic order.

The integration of these nine new partners confirms the ambition of the BRICS to extend their influence in strategic areas. However, this expansion raises questions about the effectiveness of the group’s governance. The larger the bloc grows, the more calls for increased institutionalization are heard to avoid a fragmentation of interests. In this context, the redefinition of the international monetary system and the creation of alternatives to the dollar remain major objectives. However, the diversity of economic trajectories complicates the establishment of a common strategy. Without more rigorous coordination, the scale of this alliance could slow its ability to weigh against major powers. Thus, if the BRICS manage to consolidate their unity and overcome these challenges, they could sustainably alter the global economic balance and establish themselves as a solid counterweight to Western-dominated institutions.